This was posted at 8:03 AM at the Bonddad Blog Thursday. I see other venues having similar reports up also. I am sometimes late in posting NDd’s economic commentaries. Ex-housing, PCE inflation, like CPI inflation, is under the Fed’s 2% target – by New Deal democrat Note: I may not be around for the ISM […]
Despite a few soft spots, consumer income and spending continued to power ahead in October – by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is along with the jobs report, one of the two most important coincident metrics for the entire economy, because it is a fairly comprehensive look at the consumer […]
Despite the continued elevation of continued claims, initial claims signal continued expansion – by New Deal democrat I’ll comment on personal income and spending later this morning, but let’s start out with our weekly update on jobless claims. Initial claims rose 7,000 to 218,000, while the 4 week average declined -500 to 220,000. With a […]
Forecasting a further upturn in the unemployment rate: what works? – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I read a post over at Seeking Alpha in which the author confidently predicted a recession in Q1 next year, based exclusively on the NAHB builder sentiment index. Here’s his accompanying graph, comparing builder sentiment with the unemployment rate […]
Driven by frozen inventory, repeat home prices continue to increase, but downward pressure on shelter inflation remains – by New Deal democrat Our last piece of important housing information for the month was released this morning; namely repeat home sale prices as measured by the FHFA and Case Shiller. The former increased by 0.6%, and […]
Two year low in new home prices and turndown in sales show renewed pressure caused by increased mortgage rates – by New Deal democrat Once again, this morning’s report on new single family home sales shows that the compete bifurcation of the new vs. existing home markets continues. Unlike existing homeowners, many of whom are shackled […]
Why the Index of Leading Indicators failed – by New Deal democrat I have a post by the above title up at Seeking Alpha. The Index of Leading Indicators has persistently declined for 22 months, and is off by a level that in the past has been consistent with already ongoing, deep recessions. And yet the […]
Initial jobless claims confirm benign employment conditions – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -14,000 to 209,000 last week, and the four week moving average declined -750 to 220,000. With the usual one week lag, continuing claims declined -22,000 to 1.840 million: On a YoY basis, both weekly claims and their four week average […]
Existing homeowners with 3% mortgages remain frozen in place, as sales fall to a new 28 year low – by New Deal democrat October marked yet another month in the fully bifurcated housing market, in which most existing homeowners are frozen in place by their 3% mortgages, and buyers have turned to new homes (and […]
On Thanksgiving, enjoying the bounty of foods native to the New World – by New Deal democrat Happy Thanksgiving to all readers of this old-fashioned blog. One little fact I did not know until this year is that, with just a couple of exceptions, all of the foods that we traditionally put on the table […]