Driven by frozen inventory, repeat home prices continue to increase, but downward pressure on shelter inflation remains – by New Deal democrat Our last piece of important housing information for the month was released this morning; namely repeat home sale prices as measured by the FHFA and Case Shiller. The former increased by 0.6%, and […]
Two year low in new home prices and turndown in sales show renewed pressure caused by increased mortgage rates – by New Deal democrat Once again, this morning’s report on new single family home sales shows that the compete bifurcation of the new vs. existing home markets continues. Unlike existing homeowners, many of whom are shackled […]
Why the Index of Leading Indicators failed – by New Deal democrat I have a post by the above title up at Seeking Alpha. The Index of Leading Indicators has persistently declined for 22 months, and is off by a level that in the past has been consistent with already ongoing, deep recessions. And yet the […]
Initial jobless claims confirm benign employment conditions – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -14,000 to 209,000 last week, and the four week moving average declined -750 to 220,000. With the usual one week lag, continuing claims declined -22,000 to 1.840 million: On a YoY basis, both weekly claims and their four week average […]
Existing homeowners with 3% mortgages remain frozen in place, as sales fall to a new 28 year low – by New Deal democrat October marked yet another month in the fully bifurcated housing market, in which most existing homeowners are frozen in place by their 3% mortgages, and buyers have turned to new homes (and […]
On Thanksgiving, enjoying the bounty of foods native to the New World – by New Deal democrat Happy Thanksgiving to all readers of this old-fashioned blog. One little fact I did not know until this year is that, with just a couple of exceptions, all of the foods that we traditionally put on the table […]
Why has residential building construction remained so strong, despite the recessionary-level decline in permits and starts? – by New Deal democrat As an initial note, there is no economic news today. For obvious reasons there won’t be on Thursday or Friday either. So, don’t be surprised if I take a couple of days off as […]
Weekly Indicators for November 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. After a brief pause, the coincident indicators have continued to improve. There are now very few that are not positive. The spotlight therefore remains on the short leading indicators, as to which […]
Housing construction continues to support subdued expansion – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote of how manufacturing has faded somewhat as a leading indicator, at least in the sense that it takes a steeper downturn than it used to in order to forecast a wider downturn in the economy. Which makes the other big […]
October industrial and manufacturing production tank – but it’s all about the UAW strike – by New Deal democrat Industrial production historically has been the King of Coincident Indicators, turning up and down coincident with the onset and end of recessions in the past. But there are signs that has changed in the past 20+ […]