Initial jobless claims continue positive, suggesting good news for the tomorrow’s February unemployment rate as well – by New Deal democrat The most important reason I cover initial jobless claims is because they are an “official” short leading indicator. They are also very good at forecasting the short-term trend in the unemployment rate in the […]
January JOLTS report: shows more (relative) weakening, downward revisions to 2023 – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS report for January showed only minor changes compared with December, all to the downside, but was somewhat overshadowed by mainly downward revisions to all of 2023. Starting with the monthly changes, job openings (blue in the graph below), […]
Real incomes and Presidential approval: most measures did not surpass pre-pandemic levels until 2023, or this year! – by New Deal democrat This post is somewhat of a follow-up to one I wrote two weeks ago, about perceptions of income vs. inflation, as well as following up on yesterday’s post considering the electoral implications of […]
A bit behind here as other things have distracted me in AZ. Health being one of them. A double dose of excellent reviews of the economy today. If there is one commentary (if you are rushed) on Angry Bear you should read concerning the economy, it is NDd’s reporting. Spending and Unemployment are in the […]
– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog As usual, the new month’s data starts out with information on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index has been a good leading indicator in that sector for 75 years. The difference over time, especially the last 20 years, is that manufacturing makes up a smaller share […]
January personal income and spending: Goldilocks is knocking at the door – by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending has become one of the two most important monthly reports I follow, because it nets out the impacts of higher interest rates and abating inflation due to the unlinking of the supply chain. Because real […]
Initial claims still very positive, especially YoY – by New Deal democrat Before I get to this morning’s personal income and spending report, let’s get the latest weekly update to jobless claims out of the way. New jobless claims rose 13,000 to 215,000, while the four-week moving average declined -3,000 to 212,500. Continuing claims, contrarily, […]
The state of freight – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news today. Yesterday we did get durable goods orders, which are an official leading indicator. I don’t pay too much attention to them, because they are so volatile. Thus yesterday’s big -6.1% decline (blue in the graph below) is more likely than […]
Repeat sales house price indexes continue to increases on par with past expansions – by New Deal democrat House prices lag home sales, which in turn lag mortgage rates. Yesterday we got the final January reading on sales. This morning, we got the final monthly (for December) read on prices, for repeat sales of existing […]
New home sales and YoY prices change little; expect sideways trend to follow similar recent trend in mortgage rates – by New Deal democrat This week we conclude January’s housing market data with repeat sales prices tomorrow, and new single family home sales, which were reported this morning. Per my usual caveat, while new home […]