EV sales stalling and hybrids are flying off dealer lots
A discussion: EV sales have been stalling, while hybrids are flying off dealer lots
– by New Deal democrat
In addition to housing, the other big area where supply shock inflation has not completely resolved is vehicles. Basically almost the entirety of 2020 production was lost, leading to roughly a 10 million vehicle shortfall in the amount necessary to replace old vehicles. As the below graph shows, while new vehicles cost no more in “real” terms compared with average hourly supervisory wages, used vehicles continue to command a substantial premium:
Until both new and used vehicles normalize compared with wages, the supply crunch is not completely resolved.
While the latest data is three months old, and rates have probably come down somewhat since then (like all other interest rates), the interest rate on auto loans has gone up considerably since before the pandemic:
This is a good introduction to a discussion of why EV sales are waning somewhat, as indicated in the below graph (via Kevin Drum):
Here’s the snapshot. As of November,
“Car dealers across the country say they had a 114-day supply of new EVs … , compared to a 71-day supply of inventory for the auto industry overall. Historically, a 60 day supply across the auto industry was considered ideal.”
“New hybrids … are the quickest to sell, spending an average of 37.2 days on the lot.”
PBS had a very good discussion of why buyers have been turning more to hybrids than to EV’s. I recommend that you read it in its entirety, but here is a bullet point summary:
So far in 2023, Americans have bought a record 1 million-plus hybrids — up 76 percent from the same period last year, according to Edmunds.com….[plus] 148,000 plug-in hybrids, which drive a short distance on battery power before a gas-electric system kicks in.
Though electric vehicle sales are nearing an annual record of over 1 million this year, their year over year growth rate has begun to stall.
The reasons why hybrids have quickly become the preferred choice for many buyers vary. They range from the higher prices of comparable EVs to concern about the scarcity of charging stations to a recognition that hybrids provide many of the same advantages without the hassles of EVs.
Here are snapshots of the issues discussed in the article:
- Prices: “EV prices have being dropping, mainly a consequence of federal tax credits and price cuts by Tesla, the market leader. Yet they’re still pricier than hybrids or gas vehicles”
- Range issues: customers do not want to have to stop frequently for lengthy recharging of EV batteries, and worry that charging stations may not be available on long trips where they need them.
- Cold weather issues: “hybrid buyers appear to have done research and know that cold weather reduces the range of an EV battery. Tests conducted in Norway, . . . found that EVs lose between 10 percent and 36 percent of their range during winter.” The widely publicized debacle this past week in Chicago, where many EV’s were bricked because charging stations’ speed slowed to a crawl, and vehicles died while waiting in line, isn’t going to help.
- Reliability: “ Consumer Reports found that hybrids were the industry’s most reliable type of power system. Electric vehicles were least reliable.”
Two things the article did not mention: the necessity to pay for the installation of a 240 volt line in your garage to charge an EV, if you don’t want to rely on the public stations. And the fact that most hybrids now accelerate nearly as fast as, and sometimes even faster than, their internal combustion engine counterparts.
In the long run, if there is improvement in the range of EV batteries, the speed of recharging, and if prices decline to a level competitive to gas powered models, they will be an excellent improvement, both in terms of global climate and geopolitically ending the power of petrosheikhdoms.
In the meantime, as I noted in an earlier post, recently I had no choice but to get a new vehicle. Ultimately I chose a hybrid over an EV for almost all of the reasons discussed in the article above.
It should be noted that, even for a fully electric vehicle, most people have no reason to install a home 240v charger. Overnight, for most commuters, a wall socket plug will more than provide enough power to cover the next day’s commute and a few stops on the way home (note that non-tailored charging is voltage-driven, so that the bulk of energy is transferred in the first few hours). Public charging will be needed only in the case of consecutive road trips.
rick:
With partial charges, battery capacity wains, Is the same true for an electric vehicle battery?
Even worse, having to use your garage for your car.
Bill,
“Wall chargers” can be used, but are NOT recommended. An overnight charge for my hybrid (Ioniq–not recommended, but they got better with the 5 and 6) gives it a full charge. But (and this is why not recommended), it’s really only a “hybrid” in the sense of it can basically be used as an electric commuter car (short distances).
And, as others have noted, the current set of plug-in hybrids get worse gas mileage in cold weather, in large part because the gas engine is used for heating the interior of the car. (I thought that would be intuitive, but apparently have once again overestimated the information most American drivers have about their cars.)
My old Prius was a much truer hybrid. And the Chevy Bolt is almost the ideal for mostly single-driver trips.
That said, a lot of electric/hybrid cars bought now are going to be royally ****ed in about six years, when all the charging stations are incompatible with their current plug. Which is the other reason I wouldn’t buy a plug-in right now.
Ken:
Thank you for the input. Always welcome.
Sounds like you have the background and experience to write more on the topic.
We will probably install an Induction range and get rid of the natural gas one. It smells. I guess a smart move would be to have 220 in the garage too. Outlets can always be changed.
I have a 16 year old Saab 9-3, with low mileage when purchased (it was a demonstrator), still with relatively low mileage as I have been retired all the time I’ve owned it. The best car I’ve ever owned, and the most expensive at $20K or so. I had previously bought a used Saab for my daughter and was hugely impressed. Then they went out of business, despite making great autos. This one is irreplaceable. Previously it had been Fords, for many years.
My local Ford dealer has electric Mustangs available for $65K, and plug-in hybrid Escapes for $45K (only $15K more than the non-plug-in version.) Fkying off the lot? I wonder…
@Fred,
We’ve never paid more than $15K for a car in my life, and we’ve always bought new. My wife drives a 21 yo Pontiac Vibe, so she’s probably gonna make the next purchase. Maybe a hybrid, but I doubt she’ll go all-electric.
Joel:
We would buy almost new. Less than 15,000 miles and in some cases still having a warranty. The 2015 Passat had 8,000 miles. Now at 68,000. The Escape came with similar mileage.
I have a 16 year old Saab 9-3 that had 8000 miles on it (as a demonstrator) when purchased. Best car I’ve ever owned, by far for the longest period, and the most expensive (about $20K.) It’s irreplacable. Still with relatively low mileage.
Previously, for many years a Ford owner.
The EV market is getting crushed
Boston Globe – January 25