House prices increase for third straight month, but Case Shiller index now negative YoY – by New Deal democrat Seasonally adjusted house prices through April as measured by both the FHFA (red in the graph below) and Case Shiller (blue) Indexes rose, the former by 0.7% and the latter by 0.5%. This is the third […]
New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for June 19 – 23 2023 – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. When nothing dramatic is happening, high frequency information can be like watching paint dry. That’s where we are at the moment. The positives – like improving sentiment in the stock market – […]
Back to the basics: how do initial claims, total hours worked, aggregate real payrolls, and job growth relate? – by New Deal democratFed One of the most important reasons why big Fed rate hikes and big downturns in things like housing starts and credit provision haven’t translated into a recession this year (so far!) is […]
Initial claims: yellow caution flag turns more orange – by New Deal democrat Initial claims, which were one of the most positive indicators of all last year, have turned darker in the last several months, and are edging closer to triggering their recession warning levels. Claims were unchanged at a revised 264,000 last week, the […]
Real wage growth leads spending; meaning spending seems likely to stall after an increase over the next few months – by New Deal democrat No big economic news today, so I wanted to pick up on a subject I began a week ago Monday; namely, taking a detailed look at personal spending, i.e., consumption. To […]
Housing under construction increases back close to record; good economic news, but ammunition for a hawkish Fed – by New Deal democrat Last month I wrote that “the Fed’s sledgehammer attempt via one of the most aggressive rate hike campaigns in its history appears to be on the verge of failure. That’s because housing construction, […]
A comment on Juneteenth; and what I’ll be looking for in tomorrow’s housing report – by New Deal democrat That Juneteenth is a national holiday ought to be a full rebuttal to those who think that teaching the entirety of American history, including its worst moments, is somehow an insult to the majority. That enslavement […]
Weekly Indicators for June 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Stocks are really buying the “soft landing” scenario, rising to repeated 12 month+ highs, apparently anticipating that corporate profits will be off to the races again. Meanwhile, when we look at consumer […]
Real retail sales continue to suggest recession, decelerating employment gains – by New Deal democrat The second of the three important datapoints this morning was retail sales for May. This is one of my favorite indicators, because it has several leading relationships, and is also an important component of one of the main data series […]
Industrial production continues to falter in May – by New Deal democrat My final update this morning is for industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, which has most frequently corresponded with peaks and troughs in economic activity as determined by the NBER. The news for total production was not good, as it declined -0.2% […]