Jobless claims make new pandemic lows at last New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether, as the number of those vaccinated continues to increase, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial and social activities […]
Seconding Paul Krugman: inflationary pressures will be a transient phenomenon in 2021 (but will they cause a recession in 2022?) – by New Deal democrat Paul Krugman argues once’s again this morning that any increase in inflation this year as part of a post-pandemic boom will be transitory: I agree. I want to elaborate on one […]
Economic data and coronavirus quick hits I really need to rouse myself to write a long-form piece on interest rates, housing, and the economy to post over at Seeking Alpha. Ugh! In the meantime, here are a few quick hits on some important or noteworthy new data. 1. New home sales – interest rates bite, […]
Coronavirus dashboard for March 22: crossing an important threshold, to the *good* side The US is on the verge of crossing an important threshold: as of today, the 7 day average of COVID 19 deaths in the US has declined to exactly 1000: The last time the US averaged less than 1000 deaths a week […]
Democrats: legislate the society you want to live in first; worry about how to pay for it afterward I want to add my voice to and amplify several themes I have read elsewhere in recent weeks. To summarize: 1. If there is no majority to kill the Senate filibuster, reforming it into an actual talking […]
Disappointing weekly increase in new jobless claims, but monthly trend improves; expect a 200,000+ number of new jobs in next Employment Report – by New Deal democrat New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether my suspicion is […]
Coronavirus dashboard for March 19: yes, vaccinations are working The three big Western standouts for vaccination progress have been Israel, the UK, and the US, respectively. And in all three, there have been dramatic declines in both cases and deaths. Let’s look at them in order. First, Israel: 56% of all Israelis have had at […]
Big (weather related) declines in February production and sales This morning (Tuesday) we got the most important single metrics for both the consumer and producer side of the economy for February, respectively, retail sales and industrial production. Both were big misses, one explicitly and the other likely due to the big freeze in Texas and […]
Coronavirus dashboard for March 15: good news, and cause for concern A year ago today I wrote about the accuracy of Jim Bianco’s forecast of exponential spread of COVID-19. At that time there were exactly 2952 cases, but increasing at 30% each day, and I wrote, “I have not seen any government action significant enough to stop this […]
New jobless claims continue to decline, just above the pandemic low New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether my suspicion that, as a critical mass of those vaccinated is reached, there will be a veritable surge […]