Credit conditions worsen, and likely to worsen further due to Debt Ceiling Debacle II – by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey, which measures credit on offer by banks, and the demand for credit by their customers, was released yesterday afternoon for Q1, and the news – unsurprisingly – was not good. Credit conditions […]
Scenes from the April employment report: the Fed just can’t kill the employment “beast” – by New Deal democrat There’s no economic news this morning, so let’s take a closer look at some important trends from last Friday’s April jobs report . As I and many others wrote, an important theme was that the deceleration […]
run75441’s footnote to NDd Weekly Analysis . . . The analysis by NDd is one of the most thorough ones, I read on a weekly basis. It sums up the week casting the numbers for the week in comparison to what is going on economically. What I see happening in the economy, NDd brings to […]
April jobs report: deceleration continues, with sharp downward revisions to previous months’ gains – by New Deal democrat My focus for this report continued to be whether the leading sectors and other indicators continued to decline, and whether the pace of growth continued to decelerate. While the deceleration in growth did occur – and substantially […]
Jobless claims hoist yellow flag again; employment and unemployment likely to show further deceleration tomorrow – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 242,000 last week, while the 4 week average rose 3,500 to 239,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, declined -38,000 to 1.805 million: This is right in the […]
The un(der)employment rate leads wage growth: 2023 update – by New Deal democrat I had already planned on taking an updated look at wage growth today, but there was a little flutter on twitter about job openings and last week’s Q1 wage and benefits data, so that sealed the deal. To wit: as I used […]
March JOLTS report shows labor market about halfway to pre-pandemic normalization – by New Deal democrat The title of this piece is an important to clue the relative nature of this morning’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover report for March. For the last several years, the jobs market has been a game of “reverse musical […]
Manufacturing and construction start out the month’s data to the negative side – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with reports on last month’s manufacturing, and construction from two months ago. The ISM manufacturing index has a 75 year record of being a very reliable leading indicator. According to the ISM, […]
Weekly Indicators for April 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several important short leading indicators rallied this week. In particular, the stock market seems to think the worst is over (for the moment!). At the same time, several important coincident indicators of taxation […]
A mixed picture on real personal income, savings, and spending in March, and real total sales in February – by New Deal democrat As I’ve indicated a number of times recently, right now I consider the report on personal income and spending co-equal to the employment report as the most important monthly data. For March, […]