New housing construction appears to have bottomed; but expect further declines in construction employment ahead – by New Deal democrat Pointing your attention to NDd’s calling out of the economic signs leading to job declines. ~~~~~~~~ For the past few months, I’ve noted that new home sales, which while very volatile frequently are the first […]
Two “fundamental” indicators for the American middle/working class and the economy – by New Deal democrat This week is a little light on data, except for housing permits and starts (Tuesday) and existing home sales (Thursday), so let me catch up on a few other indicators. In particular, two of my favorite indicators are based […]
Weekly Indicators for April 10 -14 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My ‘Weekly Indicators’ post is up at Seeking Alpha. The slow drip-drip-drip of deceleration generally continues. Perhaps most significantly, YoY consumer spending as measured by Redbook sank to a new post-pandemic lockdown low of only +1.5%. But other coincident indicators in particular, […]
Real manufacturing and trade sales probably rose to a new record high in February; may have declined in March – by New Deal democrat Real manufacturing and trade sales is one of the 4 monthly coincident indicators most monitored by the NBER to determine whether the economy is in expansion or recession. Because the reporting of […]
Positive revisions make for a good March industrial production report – by New Deal democrat If retail sales for March were bad, industrial production (blue in the graph below) was at very least mixed to the upside. Total production increased +0.4%, and on top of that February was revised higher by +0.2%, and January was […]
March real retail sales lay an egg, suggests downturn in nonfarm payrolls by the end of summer – by New Deal democrat After a quiet early part of the week, today we get a deluge of data: retail sales and industrial production for March, and total business sales for February. Because real total business sales […]
Initial claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims last week rose 11,000 to 239,000. The more important 4 week average rose 2,250 to 240,000. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, decreased 13,000 to 1,823,000: At this juncture the YoY change is more important, because increases of […]
Properly measured, consumer inflation is only about 3.0% YoY, and the economy has experience Deflation since last June – by New Deal democrat One month ago, I “officially” took the position that inflation had been conquered, and that, properly measured, the economy had actually been experiencing deflation since last June. This morning’s report only confirmed […]
Scenes from the March employment report 2: unemployment recession indicators – by New Deal democrat A reminder: I may be offline for the next couple of days. In the meantime, yesterday I looked at the 5 leading indicators contained in the employment report, and summarized how they either signal recession now or within the next […]
Scenes from the March employment report 1: leading sector indicators – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news this week until Wednesday’s CPI report, and as a side note, I might be offline for a day or two later this week. In the meantime, today and tomorrow let’s take a look at some […]