The 2020 Presidential and Senate nowcasts: in 2020 the “blue wall” looks very likely to hold, but expect surprises in the Senate Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the […]
A brief history of the Judiciary under Republics; the radical departure of the US Constitution, and how to reform it now I’ll have a note up, probably at Seeking Alpha tomorrow, on new home sales, which get reported later this morning. In the meantime, especially with the likely confirmation of the 6th movement conservative Justice […]
Coronavirus dashboard for October 20: some good news among the gloom Total US confirmed infections: 8,273,296* Average US infections last 7 days: 59,527 (vs. recent low of 34,354 on Sept 12) Total US deaths: 221,052 Average US deaths last 7 days: 738 (vs. recent low of 689 4 days ago) *I suspect the real […]
Jobless claims: a very positive reversal This week’s new jobless claims report not only reversed last week’s increase but declined below 800,000 for the first time on an *un*revised basis. I say that because revisions from two weeks ago now have that week as the lowest since the pandemic struck. [NOTE: California has restarted […]
The 2020 election nowcast: Biden widens national lead; Senate races likely to follow Presidential result in each State Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College.At only 16 days […]
Two noteworthy tweets It’s a slow economic news week. Housing starts and permits are reported tomorrow, and jobless claims and existing home sales on Thursday. I’ll update the Coronavirus Dashboard Wednesday. So for today, two nuggets. 1. Nate Silver discovers behavioral psychology: This has been my paradigm for months. Panic breeds compliance with mask-wearing and […]
Real retail sales continue (inexplicably) strong, still bode well for employment This morning we got two important monthly September reports: industrial production and retail sales. I have more to say about industrial production, and some general economic analysis about retail sales, which are pending at Seeking Alpha. I will post a link once that […]
Jobless claims: only one week’s data, but cause for significant concern Today marked the biggest increase in new jobless claims in two months, and one of the two biggest increases since May, while the slightly lagging continuing claims continued to decline. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 76,670 to 885,885. […]
Coronavirus dashboard for October 14: winter is coming Total US confirmed cases: 7,806,805* Average cases last 7 days: 51,038 Total US deaths: 215,887 Average deaths last 7 days: 714*Actual cases probably more like 14 million, or over 4% of the US populationSource: COVID Tracking ProjectToday let’s take a look at the most recent upsurge in […]
Consumer prices rise a “normal” 0.2% in September In September Consumer prices rose a “normal” 0.2%, the first such typical increase since the pandemic began (blue in the graph below): For the past 40 years, recessions had typically happened when CPI less energy costs (red) had risen to close to or over 3%/year. We are […]