Total US confirmed cases: 7,806,805*
Average cases last 7 days: 51,038
Total US deaths: 215,887
Average deaths last 7 days: 714*Actual cases probably more like 14 million, or over 4% of the US populationSource: COVID Tracking ProjectToday let’s take a look at the most recent upsurge in COVID not just in the US, but in the entire West.Here is the 7 day average of new cases per capita in the US, Canada, and the 5 most populous countries in Europe:
Every single country, even Germany, is experiencing an upsurge. France, Spain, and the UK are having an even worse outbreak than the US.
Here are deaths per capita. Note that this graph only shows the past 12 weeks. Early on the US, UK, Spain and Italy all had daily deaths on the order of 14 to 18 per capita, dwarfing everything since:
We know that these will follow new cases with a 2 to 4 week lag. Spain already exceeds the US. France and the UK are following behind.
All things considered, Canada and Germany are still doing quite well. But the increase in cases there certainly points to how hard it is to keep this virus contained.
Within the US, here is the spaghetti chart of cases in all 50 States plus DC and the territories:
Note that the Dakotas and Montana now have worse outbreaks than even NY did in April.
Here are deaths:
In April, NY had deaths of about 50 per capita every day, so even North Dakota, at 14 per day, while the worst since then – even surpassing Arizona’s summer spike – is nowhere near that bad – yet.
Here are the bottom 10 jurisdictions for infections:
Only Maine and Vermont among the 50 States still have the pandemic controlled.
Finally, here are the bottom 10 for deaths:
Again, only Maine and Vermont have still fully contained the virus.
And winter is coming.
What is remarkable to me about this data is that the mortality associated with the original spring ramp up in the US was far higher than summer move to infections levels that look to peak at double the spring rate. Hard to say exactly since the mortality is just referenced as “dwarfing” more recent trends. My hypotheses would be that the spring infection surge was underreported (by a lot) and that the populations found in the geographies most impacted in spring skewed to poorer overall health. Florida has older folks than New York/New Jersey, but maybe those Floridians have better general health in the older age groups. Maybe having the resources to retire from other parts of the country to Florida correlates with better than typical distribution of general health. Not great health, but maybe enough to change the mortality implications of COVID significantly.
14 million American covid-19 victims to date! This is almost 2^24. After another 5 doubles we can expect 2^29, more than total US population. So far our case count has doubled every 12 days. This means that in 2 months each of us can expect to be either a sub-clinical case, asymptomatic or a clinical problem and perhaps dead.
during the 1918 pandemic there were three waves of flu. the final wave of flu, as I remember reading, was in October. it was not until 3 months later that the stock market finally bottomed out and begin to rise again.
USA first wave of flu this time around peaked out in April and the second wave peaked out in July. we are now bucking for the third wave.
assuming that you can only catch this thing once, we can then see that the scare will be over in 3 months but since the stock market looks ahead by about six months I’m guessing that this would be a good time to buy equities.
is it too early to make this
Some people, well one person says “it’s over”.
Who to believe? Hundreds of medical professionals or Fat Donnie from Queens? Choices, too many choices.
Not every country is experiencing an upsurge – every North Atlantic country maybe. Australia, New Zealand, China for instance, not.. But the US will follow Europe to a massive surge I’m sure as colder wetter weather arrives.