Both manufacturing and construction continue to contract – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with data on last month’s manufacturing activity, and the previous month’s construction activity. This month, both were negative. The ISM manufacturing index, which has had an excellent record as a leading indicator for the past 75 years, […]
Weekly Indicators for March 27 – 31 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat I keep forgetting to put up this link on Saturdays, but you know where to find it: my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The good thing about high frequency indicators is you can see what is happening with trends […]
Real income in February rises slightly; real spending declines slightly; real total sales in January rose sharply, as expected – by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, personal income and outlays is one of the two most important data releases at the current time, along with the monthly jobs report. That’s because […]
Revisions to Q4 GDP made real final sales worse, a potential portent of near in time recession – by New Deal democrat A month ago, following another blogger, I took a look at real final sales, and real final sales to domestic purchasers, in the GDP – which increased less than 0.5% and just above […]
Almost nobody is still getting laid off, but this week, it’s not good enough – by New Deal democrat Today and tomorrow update the two remaining positive sectors of the economy: jobs and real personal income. And the first one continued to give excellent historical readings, but relatively speaking suffered in comparison to their all-time […]
More on the sharp deceleration in YoY house price gains, and the Fed’s chasing the phantom menace – by New Deal democrat Since there is no big economic news again today, let me fill in a little more detail on house prices through January, reported yesterday, vs. CPI for shelter. Here is the monthly % […]
YoY house price gains continue to decline – by New Deal democrat Today is a travel day so I have to keep this brief. On a monthly basis for January, prices rose 0.2% as measured by the FHFA house price index. But because that was far less of an increase in January last year, YoY […]
3 graphic signs of financial stress – by New Deal democrat The theme of my weekly “high frequency” economic indicators update over the weekend was the sudden deterioration in some measurements of financial stress. Tomorrow we’ll find out that house prices as measured by both the FHFA and Case Shiller have decline further, and that […]
Weekly Indicators for March 20 – 24 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat I’ve neglected to put this up for the past several weeks, but by now you know where to find my latest Weekly Indicator post at Seeking Alpha. Probably unsurprisingly, in the week after the Silicon Valley Bank failure, just about every financial […]
There is now only one significant manufacturing datapoint that is not flat or down – but it’s the one the NBER relies upon – by New Deal democrat I am increasingly of the opinion that at the moment, the only two economic data series that are important are nonfarm payrolls and the personal consumption expenditure deflator. […]