Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Remember that polls are really only nowcasts, not forecasts. They are snapshots of the present; there is no guarantee they will be identical or nearly identical in early November.
A special reminder: these polls were all taken before Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis, and only a few were entirely after the debate.
The best news for Trump, and the worst news for Biden, is that despite an awful debate performance, Trump’s approval *rose* 0.7% over the past week, while his disapproval dropped 0.4%. He is now near the upper end of his normal range of approval going back 3.5 years: