Weekly Indicators for February 20 – 24 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While several of the important coincident indicators continue to hover just above neutrality, importantly neither long term Treasury yields nor corporate bond yields nor mortgage rates have made a new high in the […]
New home sales: a bright spot in the housing indicators – by New Deal democrat New home sales are very noisy, and are heavily revised, which is why I pay more attention to single family housing permits. But they do have one important value: they are frequently the first housing indicator to turn at both […]
Strong upward revisions push real personal income to new highs, put 2 important coincident indicators firmly in expansion territory – by New Deal democrat Almost all of the news in this morning’s release for personal income and spending for January was positive. Nominally, personal income rose +0.6% and personal spending rose 1.8%. The deflator also […]
The “gold standard” of jobs data shows a strong rebound in Q3 2022 – by New Deal democrat The preliminary estimate for the Q3 2022 QCEW was released yesterday. Although the monthly nonfarm payrolls report gets all the glory, it is only a survey. The QCEW is an actual census of the roughly 95% of […]
Initial claims continue recent excellent streak – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims continued their recent excellent reports, as there were only 192,000 new claims, down -3,000 from the week before, and close to their 50+ year lows of last March and April. The 4 week average increased 1,500 to 191,250, still an excellent […]
Consumption leads jobs: a comprehensive update – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I encountered a post on Seeking Alpha from the chief economist for a major trading platform, who probably makes in a week the amount I pocket in an entire year from my writing, who wrote: “if one loses one’s job, one likely spends […]
The long leading forecast through year end 2023 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat Normally in late January I update my top-line long leading forecast for the entire year. A little late this year, it is now up at Seeking Alpha. If you follow my updates on the leading indicators, the result isn’t very […]
Existing home sales and prices decline further, BUT . . . – by New Deal democrat Even though existing home sales make up about 90% of the total market, they have much less economic impact than new home construction. They are best used to confirm trends. In January they continued to confirm that sales have […]
Weekly Indicators for February 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There are two trends percolating under the surface. One trend is the continued slow decaying of growth in the coincident indicators. The other is the slow move towards turning neutral or positive […]
Real average wages and real aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers through January – by New Deal democrat With no new data today, to close out the week let’s update real average wages and aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers. This is the best way, based on monthly data, to see how average Americans are doing financially. While […]