Real average wages and real aggregate payrolls for December 2022 – by New Deal democrat Now that we know December consumer inflation, we can see how the American working/middle class is “really” doing. Nominally, average wages for nonsupervisory workers increased 0.2%, while prices deflated by -0.1%, meaning that “real” average wages increased 0.3% for the […]
Jobless claims start out 2023 where they left off in 2022 – as positive – by New Deal democrat It took a little while for FRED to post this data today, but with that reason for a delay . . . Initial jobless claims started off 2023 where they left off in 2022, with another […]
Consumer inflation remains dominated by gas prices (good) and shelter (bad) – by New Deal democrat Declining gas prices continue to do wondrous things for the economy. In December they declined from roughly $3.50 to $3.10/gallon. Meanwhile the phantom menace of Owners’ Equivalent Rent continues to drag “core” inflation higher. Details below. Total inflation: -0.1%m/m […]
An in-depth look at production and sales: evidence of peaking in both – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I took an in-depth look at employment. Today let’s take a look at two other important coincident indicators that are looked at by the NBER for guidance as to whether or not the economy is expanding or […]
Scenes from the December jobs report: more deceleration – by New Deal democrat The only significant economic data this week will be released on Thursday, with both CPI and jobless claims. In the meantime, let’s take a closer look at the jobs data we got last Friday. As indicated in the title of this post, […]
In which I quibble with Prof. Alan Blinder about the main reason for the decline in inflation since June – by New Deal democrat Alan S. Blinder is getting traction for an opinion piece published in the WSJ concerning the big decline in inflation since June. He acknowledges that“ energy inflation played a meaningful role” but […]
Weekly Indicators for January 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. No big changes from the past month or so. The overall economic picture continues to be driven by the effects of the price of gas. As usual, clicking over and reading will […]
December jobs report: good headlines, but deceleration continues – by New Deal democrat If the long leading indicators all last year, and the majority of the short leading indicators from the past few months are to be believed, a recession is near. And if that is the case, we ought to see the leading […]
December manufacturing, new orders both decline further, to readings even more on the cusp of recession – by New Deal democrat I described last month’s ISM manufacturing reading as being one “on the cusp of recession.” Well, this month’s reading was even cusp-ier. To recapitulate, this index has a very long and reliable history. Going back […]
New jobless claims end 2022 on a positive note; preview of tomorrow’s jobs report – by New Deal democrat Initial claims started off the year – or ended last year if you are technical about it – on a positive note, declining 19,000 to a 3-month low of 204,000. The more important 4 week moving […]