Durable goods orders appear to have peaked [Note: I’ll post about personal income and spending, as well as new home sales, later.] I normally don’t pay much attention to the monthly durable goods report, but this morning’s report for November appears significant. That’s because durable goods spending has been one of the few short leading […]
Initial claims continue in range; why they will give us a lead on when the Sahm rule for recessions may be triggered Initial claims ticked up 2,000 last week to 216,000. The 4 week moving average declined 6,250 to 221,750. Continued claims, with a one week delay, declined 6,000 to 1.670 million: To state the […]
November existing home sales: prices have unequivocally turned down – by New Deal democrat Existing home sales do not have much actual economic impact, since the primary economic activity generated by housing is the construction. But they do help tell us a great deal about pricing. For the record, sales continued their relentless decline this […]
November housing permits and starts: the biggest news is not in the headlines – by New Deal democrat The report on housing construction for November was very much a tale of two very different trends – and the most important one will almost certainly be under-reported. Housing permits issued declined to 1.342 million annualized, the lowest […]
Job growth beginning in Q2 looks to be substantially revised downward – by New Deal democrat Last week the Philadelphia Fed published a working paper suggesting that in the second quarter of this year only 10,500 jobs were actually added, rather than the 1,047,000 as indicated by the monthly Establishment survey. Here’s their graph: Here’s what you […]
Weekly Indicators for December 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The coincident indicators, especially employment, are hanging on by the proverbial skin of their teeth. I don’t think they roll over until gas prices stop declining. In any event, clicking over and […]
The status of the coincident indicators – by New Deal democrat In addition to real GDP, which is only updated quarterly and with a lag, the NBER has indicated that it relies upon four other datapoints in determining the onset month of a recession: payrolls, industrial production, real income less transfer payments, and real manufacturing, wholesale, […]
November real retail sales turn down, return to negative YoY – by New Deal democrat Real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators for both the current economy and the jobs situation 3 to 6 months ahead. This morning nominal retail sales for November were reported down -0.6%, which only takes back about 1/2 […]
Real average and aggregate non-managerial wages for November – by New Deal democrat With November’s consumer inflation report in the books, let’s update two of my favorite measures of how the working/middle class is doing – real average non-supervisory wages, and real aggregate payrolls. Nominal average wages for non-supervisory workers rose a strong 0.7% in […]
November CPI: Thank you, gas prices! No thank you, owners’ equivalent rent – by New Deal democrat Just like producer prices as reported last Friday, consumer prices for November confirm the inflection point of last June. Thank you, lower gas prices! Here’s what total and core (ex-food and energy) inflation look like, normed to 100 […]