A brief overview of the current state of the economy – by New Deal democrat This week we get the final most important data of 2022, with consumer prices tomorrow and industrial production and retail sales Thursday. The Fed will also be making its final rate hike decision of the year. Next week and the […]
Weekly Indicators for December 5 – 9 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The most noteworthy trend over the past several months has been the almost relentless deterioration in the YoY measures of consumer spending and employment. That trend continued last week. As usual, clicking […]
“November producer prices: YoY measures mask recent sharp deceleration to mainly tolerable levels“ – by New Deal democrat Consumer prices for November won’t be reported until next Tuesday, but this morning we got the upstream producer prices. The news was mainly good, although not good enough to likely dissuade the Fed from its current course […]
– by New Deal democrat Jobless claims: troublesome trend continues, but no yellow flag yet Initial jobless claims is one of the few remaining positive short leading indicators. But as I’ve noted for the past several weeks, the trend is troublesome. This week initial claims rose 4,000 to 230,000, and the 4 week moving average […]
Coronavirus dashboard for December 7: the first winter wave of endemicity begins – by New Deal democrat COVID is well on its way to becoming endemic, with a significant background level similar to what we have experienced in the last 8 months, and a surge during the winter months when people spend more time socializing […]
Scenes from the November employment report: the short leading jobs indicators – by New Deal Democrat Every month as part of my post on the jobs report, I run through the changes in those measures which are short leading indicators for the economy. There were some significant developments in the past several months, so let’s […]
New factory orders remain an economic bright spot – by New Deal democrat New factory orders for October were reported this morning. I normally don’t write about them, because they are very noisy, but since at the moment they are one of the few bright spots among the short leading indicators, let’s take a look. […]
Weekly Indicators for November 28 – December 2 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. First the long leading indicators turned. Then the short leading indicators turned. Now the coincident indicators are weakening to new expansion lows almost every week. The silver lining is: the first […]
November jobs report: decidedly mixed signals, most consistent with a still-growing but decidedly weakening economy – by New Deal democrat Since early this year I have expected employment to follow the halt in consumption growth, decelerating over time to a stall. This has only intensified given the major decline in growth in payroll withholding […]
November manufacturing and October construction both decline, the former almost at recessionary levels – by New Deal democrat As usual, we begin the new month’s data with the ISM manufacturing index. This index has a very long and reliable history. Going back almost 75 years, the new orders index has always fallen below 50 within 6 months […]