Scenes from the November employment report: the short leading jobs indicators – by New Deal Democrat Every month as part of my post on the jobs report, I run through the changes in those measures which are short leading indicators for the economy. There were some significant developments in the past several months, so let’s […]
New factory orders remain an economic bright spot – by New Deal democrat New factory orders for October were reported this morning. I normally don’t write about them, because they are very noisy, but since at the moment they are one of the few bright spots among the short leading indicators, let’s take a look. […]
Weekly Indicators for November 28 – December 2 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. First the long leading indicators turned. Then the short leading indicators turned. Now the coincident indicators are weakening to new expansion lows almost every week. The silver lining is: the first […]
November jobs report: decidedly mixed signals, most consistent with a still-growing but decidedly weakening economy – by New Deal democrat Since early this year I have expected employment to follow the halt in consumption growth, decelerating over time to a stall. This has only intensified given the major decline in growth in payroll withholding […]
November manufacturing and October construction both decline, the former almost at recessionary levels – by New Deal democrat As usual, we begin the new month’s data with the ISM manufacturing index. This index has a very long and reliable history. Going back almost 75 years, the new orders index has always fallen below 50 within 6 months […]
Strong personal income and spending contrast with near record low in saving – by New Deal democrat Like retail sales earlier in November, personal income and spending both rose smartly, as shown in the below graph of real retail sales compared with real personal spending: Real personal income was up 0.4%, and real personal spending increased […]
Initial jobless claims get closer to signaling recession – by New Deal democrat Today is one of those data-palooza days, so I’ll put up separate posts on personal income and spending, and the ISM manufacturing report and construction spending reports later. But let’s start with weekly jobless claims, and the news here is OK for […]
October JOLTS report shows continued deceleration in jobs market, with continuing gap in job openings filled – by New Deal democrat For the past year, I have likened the jobs market to a game of reverse musical chairs, where there are more chairs than players. Some chairs are always left empty. The chairs are jobs, […]
– by New Deal democrat House price indexes continue to show the top is in The FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes were reported this morning, with both continuing to show that the peak in house prices took place during the summer. For the month, the seasonally adjusted FHFA index rose +0.1%, vs. a […]
New home sales adjusted for cancellations: still signs that a bottoming process might be taking place by NewDeal democrat I had a correspondent question me about whether new home sales might actually be in the process of bottoming, due to the big increase in the percentage of cancellations, as shown below (via Bill McBride): This […]