[Note: I’ll post about personal income and spending, as well as new home sales, later.]
I normally don’t pay much attention to the monthly durable goods report, but this morning’s report for November appears significant.
That’s because durable goods spending has been one of the few short leading indicators to have continued to improve – until now. Here’s the long term view:
New factory orders for durable goods declined -2.1% in November, while “core” durable goods orders excluding aircraft and defense increased 0.2%. Here’s what the last 12 months look like:
Durable goods orders have been essentially flat since June, and are now below that level. “Core” orders last made a high in August. They appear to be in the process of rolling over.
That leaves consumer durable goods spending and initial jobless claims as the only remaining positive short leading indicators.
June durable goods orders continue rebound, Angry Bear, angry bear blog