Housing on track for an early 2023 recession, but with a major caveat – by New Deal democrat I don’t think anybody was expecting a good housing construction report this month. Those non-expectations were certainly fulfilled. Housing permits rose slightly, 1.4%, from last month’s 2 year low. Single family permits, which contain even more signal, […]
September industrial production comes in very strong – by New Deal democrat September’s industrial production report puts the final nail in the coffin in the notion that the US is already in recession. I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators because, more than any other single metric, it coincides with the peaks and […]
The “Consumer nowcast” recession warning is triggered, as real wages decline, real aggregate payrolls near stall, plus record mortgage payments – by New Deal democrat No economic news today. So, now that we have the September inflation read, let’s take a look at a couple of important consumer indicators: real average wages, and real aggregate […]
Weekly Indicators for October 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Just about everything looks awful. And one bright spot, consumer spending as measured by Redbook, just got dimmer. Needless to say, if consumer spending rolls over, that’s pretty much the ball game.. You […]
September real retail sales lay another egg – by New Deal democrat One of my favorite indicators, retail sales, was reported for September this morning, and it came in unchanged. Which means that after factoring in +0.4% inflation in September, real retail sales were down -0.4%. Which is not good, because real retail sales have […]
“September consumer inflation: primarily a function of the fictitious “owners’ equivalent rent” plus new cars” – by New Deal democrat Since last November I’ve been hammering the fact that the official CPI measure of housing inflation, “owners’ equivalent rent,” seriously lagged, as in by a year or more, actual house prices as measured by the […]
“Initial claims continue to rise along with gas prices“ – by New Deal democrat Last week I wrote that initial jobless claims may have ended their recent downtrend. This week appears to have confirmed that. Initial claims rose 9,000 to 228,000, and the 4 week average rose 5,000 to 211,500. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, […]
As the economy slows, so has producer price growth – by New Deal democrat Consumer prices for September will be released tomorrow. This morning the upstream producer prices were released. Total PPI rose by 0.4%, after two straight months of decline; but excluding those and December 2021, the lowest monthly increase since November 2020. Here are […]
“For Indigenous Peoples’ Day: on the centrality of mass migrations to human history“ – by New Deal democrat I just finished reading Susan Wise Bauer’s “The History of the Ancient World,” which in a little under 800 pages summarizes an almost endless string of kings and battles from the earliest written records kept by the […]
Scenes from the September jobs report by New Deal democrat No important economic news this week until Wednesday. I was going to put up a book review for Indigenous Peoples’ Day, but it got too long and involved, so maybe tomorrow. Instead, here’s a look at some of the more important metrics I was tracking […]