A macro view of how the 2020 Presidential election differs from 2016 This is a light week for economic data, so don’t be surprised if I take a break for a day or two. In the meantime, I wanted to post a few graphs that I think give a good “macro” view of the Presidential […]
The 2020 Presidential and Senate polling nowcast: shift in the control of the Senate to democrats looks increasingly likely Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Remember […]
“The US is a white Christian country. Everyone else is here on sufferance:” Donald Trump, James II, and the Glorious Revolution – by New Deal democrat For the past year +, I have been reading about the History of Republics -really, a History of the Rule of Law – that has taken me through Ancient […]
2019: the year that the late economic expansion finally bore fruit for nearly all of society Yesterday (Sept. 16) the Census Bureau released its 2019 information concerning median household income and poverty rates. Unfortunately, this data is always released in September of the following year, so is already somewhat stale. Just for example, since the […]
Real retail sales gains join industrial production in sharp deceleration Two days ago we saw that gains in industrial production had decelerated sharply in August. This morning we saw the same thing with real retail sales, one of my favorite indicators. Nominal retail sales were up +0.6% in August. Meanwhile, July’s reading was revised downward […]
Industrial production improves in August, but with sharp deceleration If the jobs report is the Queen of Coincident Indicators, industrial production is the King. It, more than any other metric, is found at the turning points where recessions both begin and end. This morning’s report of industrial production for August shows that the recovery from […]
Coronavirus dashboard for September 14: cases in the Midwest surge; the Northeast still lags Canada Total US cases: 6,519,573 Average cases last 7 days: 34,744 Total US deaths: 194,071 Average deaths last 7 days: 733 Source: COVID Tracking Project I continue to expect the pandemic to wax and wane in relative terms at least […]
The 2020 Presidential and Senate nowcast: the races congeal Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Remember that polls are really only nowcasts, not forecasts. They are […]
Consumer inflation continues to accelerate YoY, but so far no big problem The consumer price index for August was reported up +0.4% this morning. This is the third straight big increase. Below I show this plus the more stable consumer prices minus gas (red): Here’s what the monthly changes look like over the past […]
Improvement in initial and continuing claims stalls out This morning’s jobless claims report shows that the trend of “less worse” news has at least temporarily ended, at a level of about 150,000 higher than the worst weekly levels of the Great Recession. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims rose for the second week […]