“September consumer inflation: primarily a function of the fictitious “owners’ equivalent rent” plus new cars” – by New Deal democrat Since last November I’ve been hammering the fact that the official CPI measure of housing inflation, “owners’ equivalent rent,” seriously lagged, as in by a year or more, actual house prices as measured by the […]
“Initial claims continue to rise along with gas prices“ – by New Deal democrat Last week I wrote that initial jobless claims may have ended their recent downtrend. This week appears to have confirmed that. Initial claims rose 9,000 to 228,000, and the 4 week average rose 5,000 to 211,500. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, […]
As the economy slows, so has producer price growth – by New Deal democrat Consumer prices for September will be released tomorrow. This morning the upstream producer prices were released. Total PPI rose by 0.4%, after two straight months of decline; but excluding those and December 2021, the lowest monthly increase since November 2020. Here are […]
“For Indigenous Peoples’ Day: on the centrality of mass migrations to human history“ – by New Deal democrat I just finished reading Susan Wise Bauer’s “The History of the Ancient World,” which in a little under 800 pages summarizes an almost endless string of kings and battles from the earliest written records kept by the […]
Scenes from the September jobs report by New Deal democrat No important economic news this week until Wednesday. I was going to put up a book review for Indigenous Peoples’ Day, but it got too long and involved, so maybe tomorrow. Instead, here’s a look at some of the more important metrics I was tracking […]
gas and oil prices to increase sharply
Signs and portents of an employment slowdown and a near-term recession – by New Deal democrat I continue to believe that a recession – possibly a deep if relatively brief one – is likely to start early next year. As I’ve mentioned before, this isn’t just an academic exercise; recessions by definition feature jobs and […]
September jobs report: a very positive report within a framework of continued deceleration As I have written many, many times, consumption leads employment; and the near stagnation in real sales and spending signaled that we should expect weaker monthly employment reports, with both fewer new jobs and a higher unemployment rate. In September, the former happened; […]
Jobless claims rise; the gas price low is probably ending – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims may have ended their recent downtrend. Initial claims rose 19,000 to 219,000 from last week’s 5 month low. The 4 week average rose 250 from its 4 month low to 206,500. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, increased […]
Coronavirus dashboard for October 5: An autumn lull as COVID-19 evolves towards seasonal endemicity – by New Deal democrat Back in August I highlighted some epidemiological work by Trevor Bedford about what endemic COVID is likely to look like, based on the rate of mutations and the period of time that previous infection makes a recovered […]