June retail sales: some actual good news; the entirety of the pandemic decline has been reversed Retail sales are the third report for June out of the four main coincident indicators that show whether the economy is in recession or expansion. And they were the third that grew again for the month. In fact, in […]
Industrial production rebounds, but will manufacturing employment continue to do so? Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators. The NBER almost always identifies month of the end, and frequently the beginning, of recessions based on the top and bottom of this statistic. This morning it was reported to have risen for the second […]
Coronavirus dashboard for July 14: A few US States are containing the coronavirus Headlines for the US: Total infections: 3,364,704 7 day average: 60,997 Total deaths: 135,615 7 day average: 780 We all know that taken as a whole, the US is failing abysmally in controlling the coronavirus. At least 13 States most notably including California are […]
The 2020 Presidential election nowcasts and forecast: growing evidence for a likely Biden blowout For the past three weeks I have posted a projection of the Electoral College vote based solely on State rather than national polls (since after all that is how the College operates) that have been reported in the last 30 […]
Initial and continuing claims, JOLTS show labor market “less awful” improvement continues – for now Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims have been giving the most up-to-date snapshot of the continuing economic impacts of the coronavirus on employment. This week continues the trend of slight improvement (or, more truly, slightly less awful). Below are initial […]
Coronavirus dashboard for July 8: deaths in the South and West finally suggest increasing trend Coronavirus death statistics have been plagued recently by State data dumps, where months of deaths have been released on a single day. In the past 2 weeks, both NJ and NY’s such releases had skewed the numbers. As of today, […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for July 6 – 10 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While the forecasts remain inexplicably positive, the nowcast worsened slightly. As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to the moment on the economy, and will also reward me ever so […]
Coronavirus dashboard for July 8: deaths in the South and West finally suggest increasing trend Coronavirus death statistics have been plagued recently by State data dumps, where months of deaths have been released on a single day. In the past 2 weeks, both NJ and NY’s such releases had skewed the numbers. As of today, […]
Coronavirus dashboard for July 7, 2020: deaths as a *very* lagging statistic Total diagnosed US coronavirus cases: 2,928,418 7 day average: 50,135 Total US coronavirus deaths: 122,915 7 day average: 480 The renewed exponential spread of coronavirus cases is continuing. We will probably be over 3 million cases within 48 hours. Including all of the […]
The 2020 Presidential election forecast from State polling: a Biden tsunami threatens to swamp the GOP Senate For the past two weeks, I have posted a projection of the Electoral College vote based solely on State rather than national polls (since after all that is how the College operates) that have been reported in the […]