Coronavirus dashboard for August 26: detailed State breakdowns Total US infections: 5,777,710 Average last 7 days: 41,185/day Total US deaths: 178,488 Average last 7 days: 952/day Source: COVID Tracking Project Today let’s look at both death infections and deaths. I’ve started to rate each State according to a system, so we’ll look at that after […]
More evidence that housing has roared back This morning we got the final important July housing reports: new home sales and house prices. New single home sales are very volatile and heavily revised, so it is always wise to take the initial report with a grain of salt. On the other hand, it is the […]
More on the bifurcation between the booming stock market and the bust of an economy I wrote that new stock market highs in the face of the worst US economic downturn since the Great Depression were primarily a function of a few stocks that are particularly tied to the global economy rather than tethered to […]
The 2020 Presidential and Senate polling nowcast: partisan positions continue to harden Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Remember that polls are really only nowcasts, not […]
Housing roars back As I wrote yesterday, the background longer term fundamental factors for the economy, most importantly all-time low interest rates, are very positive. In particular I wrote, this “has already made an impact on the housing market…Lower mortgage rates cause more people to buy houses. Housing permits have already made back about half of […]
Coronavirus dashboard for August 19: a regional look at infections; the Deep South remains almost totally out of control Total US cases: 5,457,824 Average last 7 days: 48,764 Total US deaths: 163,595 Average last 7 days: 1,048 Source: COVID Tracking Project My overall thesis is that under the present leadership the US as a whole […]
Initial claims mixed, while continuing claims continue “less awful” pandemic recovery trend While this morning’s initial jobless claims increased from last week, they were better than any other readings since the pandemic started. Continuing claims had their “least worst” week yet. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 52,776 to 891,510, […]
Why, in the face of the worst US economy since the Great Depression, is the stock market near record highs? As I type this, the S&P 500 is close to setting an all-time record. Last week it came within 0.2% of doing so: All of this in the face of the worst quarterly decline in […]
The 2020 Presidential and Senate nowcasts: Positions are getting entrenched, and spreading down-ticket Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Remember that polls are really only nowcasts, not forecasts. […]
Industrial production and retail sales both improve strongly in July, suggest further gains in employment This Friday morning two important indicators for July, with implications for future employment, were released: retail sales and industrial production. Retail sales for July increased 0.8% on an unadjusted basis. After adjusting for inflation, they rose 0.7%. In the past […]