Housing analysis at Seeking Alpha; updated jobless claims I have a more detailed analysis of yesterday’s very positive housing permits and starts data, and what it means for the economy for the rest of this year, over at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking over and reading helps reward me a little bit for my efforts. This […]
Housing continues to surge Low interest rates continue to fuel a strong upsurge in new housing construction. I’ll put up a more detailed post later, but for now simply note that housing permits, both overall and for the less volatile single family housing component, made new expansion highs, at levels not seen since 2007. Housing […]
Real retail sales continue flat in January; production sector still in recession Retail sales increased nominally by +0.3% in January, while December was revised downward by -0.1%, for a net gain of +0.2%. Since consumer inflation increased by +0.4% during those two months, real retail sales were unchanged. On a per capita basis, they declined […]
Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: February 9, 1869 (2) The Senate votes to reform the Electoral College As I mentioned several days ago, the Senate endured a pair of marathon sessions on February 8 and 9, 1869, and considered a variety of subjects. Perhaps most breathtakingly, they discussed further amending the Constitution to ensure that the […]
Have we reached “full employment”? An update As an initial matter, this morning’s initial and continuing jobless claims report were positive as to all metrics by which I judge them. They are near the bottom of their recent ranges and/or are lower YoY (lower being good). I’ll add a graph once the info is available […]
Where is the puzzling growth in service jobs coming from? Continuing with my week of follow-up stories based on last Friday’s jobs report, I noted last Friday that there was a completely anomalous upwards revision of nearly 100,000 jobs in the last 8 months of 2019. This after a -500,000 decrease, based on full data, […]
December JOLTS report continues the trend of confusing jobs data The December JOLTS report came out this morning, and it continues the streak of confusing employment data. To recapitulate, the JOLTS report decomposes the jobs numbers into openings, hires, quits, layoffs and discharges, and total separations. Since the series is only 20 years old, however, […]
Why I expect further declines in manufacturing jobs This is the week I highlight further information from last Friday’s jobs report. One thing that struck me is that we’ve now had two months of declines in manufacturing jobs. This is something I have been anticipating since about the middle of last year, because the manufacturing […]
Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: February 8 – 9, 1869 Note: I fell a little behind on this project. I hope to be fully up to date by the end of this weekend. On February 8 and 9, 1869, the Senate did something I daresay it would never consider now: it pulled an all-nighter! Despite numerous […]
January jobs report: why I am discounting the headline strong jobs number HEADLINES: +225,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate up +0.1% to 3.6% U6 underemployment rate up +0.2% from 6.7% to 6.9% Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall have strongly suggested that an […]