Abbreviated Coronavirus dashboard for April 12: fundamentally, still flying blind
Abbreviated Coronavirus dashboard for April 12: fundamentally, still flying blind
Here is the update through yesterday (April 11)
This is an abbreviated version, covering just the essentials.
Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com)
- Number: up +28,391 to 530,006 (vs. 35,219 prior peak on April 10)
Figure 1
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- ***Rate of increase: day/day: 6% (vs. 8% for the past week, and 8% on April 9)
Yesterday marked the lowest number of new infections in 6 days, and the smallest % increase since early March. Note the source graph I am using does not come from the usual source, which developed a glitch.
Number of deaths and infections and rate of increase of testing (from COVID Tracking Project)
- ***Number of deaths: Total 20,355, up +1,867 day/day
- Rate: increase of 10% day/day vs. average of 14% in past week
- Number of tests: 153,514 down -9,255 day/day, new daily high for non-“pending” tests
- Ratio of positive tests to total: 4.6:1
Summary
While it is pretty clear that the lockdown in place for 95% of the US population is having its desired effect, what is *NOT* clear is whether the plateau is real, or just reflects the stalling of daily testing at roughly 140,000. For the past 5 days, the number of new cases has increased or decreased depending on whether the number of total tests has increased or decreased. In fact one day ago the number of new cases INcreased even though the number of tests decreased.
In other words, fundamentally we are still flying blind. My suspicion is that the actual number of total infections in the US has been between 2x to 5x the 530,000 “official” count above.
Needless to say, any attempt to “open up” the lockdowns with testing so far behind – aside from creating a Constitutional crisis, assuming the States would refuse to follow a federal “order” – would be yet another disaster, as we could expect the disease to rapidly re-accelerate towards its former rate of 35% growth in new infections daily.
A slight glimmer of light is that Dr. Fauci gave an interview yesterday in which he suggested that a test for seroconversion – I.e., resistance to the disease via antibodies subsequent to infection – might be widely available in a few weeks. If I were forced to go to a “plan B” it would involve opening up the economy to those who have seroconverted and do not reside with those who have not seroconverted.
Not clear what “a few weeks” means, but I wouldn’t count 1 May as “a few weeks” off. Trump will be pushing for a 1 May deadline to relax restrictions. Will states resist?
Several thoughts. My wife made the observation that the reporting of declining cases/deaths reminds her of the casualty reports during the Vietnam War—1300 Viet Cong were killed and two American servicemen lost their lives. I am highly suspicious of some of the numbers being reported out of the south. Second we know that the numbers being reported as deaths from COVID-19 understate actual deaths by at least 20% because if you die at home they are not testing—problem is not unique to the South or even this country but it is another example of “flying blind”. Third no matter what Trump or the governors do there is going to be massive unemployment in retail, personal devices and the hospitality industry until people feel it is safe to frequent those establishments—people are not going to buy manufactured goods until they are employed and not worried about being unemployed tomorrow. Certainly events which depend on a live gate will be sparsely attended. The best is a vaccine but in the interim testing and contact tracing is the only way to go. I sort of hope Trump does try and restart the economy prematurely. When it fails and the deaths come roaring back it will all be on him.
Question, if you exclude New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, what does the pattern look like?
Once social distancing/stay at home orders ends COVID-19 transmission rates will return to normal, and the epidemic will proceed largely as it would have without mitigations, unless:
1. A significant fraction of the population is immune either because they have recovered from the infection or because an effective vaccine has been developed
2. The infectious agent has been completely eliminated.
Lee:
You have seen the results of the antibody tests? There were two strains of COVID19, one less potent than the other. To my knowledge, COVID19 is an RNA virus which will mutate. As of March 27, there were 8 strains. How each behaves as it mutates is one issue, which strains are turning into conflagrations is another issue because people are not staying home or states have not issued orders to do so, and others are dying out thanks to quarantine measures is the also an issue. Then too, perhaps I am misunderstanding what you are saying.
run, I think you’re both saying the same thing. Lee doesn’t believe you can return to “normal” either.
Ken:
It would not be the first time did not quite get it and yet I said similar.