Coronavirus dashboard for July 14: A few US States are containing the coronavirus
Coronavirus dashboard for July 14: A few US States are containing the coronavirus
Headlines for the US:
Total infections: 3,364,704
7 day average: 60,997
Total deaths: 135,615
7 day average: 780
We all know that taken as a whole, the US is failing abysmally in controlling the coronavirus. At least 13 States most notably including California are “re-closing” at least in part. In the last week, deaths, which had continued to decline despite the renewed exponential rise in cases in many areas, finally started to rise as well:
that, for the first time in months, on Sunday New York City did not have even a single death from the coronavirus, I thought I would take a look to see if New York, or any other States, have continued to “crush the curve.” There are a few slivers of good news.
For a benchmark, let’s start by taking a look at Canada and the European Union, in terms of cases (dotted lines) and deaths (solid lines) per week:
Canada has 7.35 cases per million per week; the EU 7.91. Canada has .331 deaths per million; the EU .177.
These are markers of true success against the coronavirus. Do any US States even come close? Only 4: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Hawaii.
Here are the 4 above States compared with Canada (blue) in terms of cases:
And here is the same comparison in terms of deaths:
Over the past 7 days, the numbers of cases and deaths per million respectively are:
ME 14 / .531
NH 16 / .946
VT 11 / 0
HI 22 / .303
Note that Hawaii’s case counts have recently increased. I decided to include them because, as islands, I suspect the State can turn it around quickly.
By comparison, here is how NY compares with Canada in terms of cases per million:
And deaths per million:
NYS still has around 4x the number of both new infections and deaths compared with Canada.
Aside from NY, only 5 other States are swimming against the tide of sharply rising new infections: NJ, CT, RI, MA, and SD. Here is the long term view:
And here is the same data just over the past 4 weeks:
Note RI apparently had a data dump yesterday, accounting for the sharp one day increase.
Bottom line: only the Northeast above the Mason-Dixon Line, and excluding PA, is continuing to have any success containing or crushing the coronavirus. The metro NYC and Boston areas still have work to do to bring their numbers down to that of neighboring Canada.
The rest of the US is on fire.
We seem to take a bump every holiday: Mother’s Day, Memorial Day, Father’s Day, Fourth of July. I’m expecting another bump after Labor Day. We clearly could be doing a lot better, but we refuse to take this epidemic seriously. America stopped being serious some time in the 1980s.
July 15, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 3,616,747)
Deaths ( 140,140)
India
Cases ( 970,169)
Deaths ( 24,929)
Mexico
Cases ( 311,486)
Deaths ( 36,327)
UK
Cases ( 291,911)
Deaths ( 45,053)
Germany
Cases ( 201,252)
Deaths ( 9,148)
Canada
Cases ( 108,829)
Deaths ( 8,810)
China
Cases ( 83,611)
Deaths ( 4,634)
Sweden
Cases ( 76,492)
Deaths ( 5,572)
July 15, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 3,616,747)
Deaths ( 140,140)
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-16/Chinese-mainland-reports-one-new-COVID-19-case-from-aboard-SaiBkG8Ims/index.html
July 16, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 1 new COVID-19 case, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland on Wednesday recorded 1 new COVID-19 case from overseas, but no new domestic cases or deaths.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 83,612 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 104 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-16/Chinese-mainland-reports-one-new-COVID-19-case-from-aboard-SaiBkG8Ims/img/88f74531391e4ba78da668071263ce0b/88f74531391e4ba78da668071263ce0b.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-16/Chinese-mainland-reports-one-new-COVID-19-case-from-aboard-SaiBkG8Ims/img/4eaeeda5fccd425bb2ce0ff10bc31015/4eaeeda5fccd425bb2ce0ff10bc31015.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-16/Chinese-mainland-reports-one-new-COVID-19-case-from-aboard-SaiBkG8Ims/img/d9bdb70eb8a040a186644eff7f2ea654/d9bdb70eb8a040a186644eff7f2ea654.jpeg
July 15, 2020
New York Times Is Badly Confused About Economics of Coronavirus Vaccine
By Dean Baker
The New York Times had a piece * reporting on the progress of Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine, based on a newly published article. After reporting on the relative success of the vaccine in a group of 45 healthy people, the NYT tells readers:
“Experts agree that more than one vaccine will be needed, because no single company could produce the billions of doses needed.”
This comment is more than a bit bizarre. There is no reason that a single vaccine could not be produced by many different companies. If Moderna, or any other company, has a patent monopoly, that could be an issue, but the government could force licensing of the vaccine. (Actually, since the government has picked up much, perhaps most, of the tab for this vaccine, it could just demand that the patent be placed in the public domain so that it can be produced as a cheap generic by any drug company in the world.)
The piece is also somewhat bizarre in celebrating the success of this initial trial which it quotes someone on the development team as saying “it exceeds all expectations.” According to the piece, many of the 45 healthy people who were given the vaccine developed serious, but not life threatening, side effects. ** With a vaccine, we are asking people to take it who quite likely will not be infected, and many of whom would not suffer serious consequences if they are infected.
If a substantial portion of healthy people have bad side effects, the impact on less healthy people could be more serious. It may be difficult to get people to take the vaccine if they would experience serious side effects. They may just opt to be careful to avoid contact with people who might be infected.
* https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/health/cornavirus-vaccine-moderna.html
** https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022483
On the NewsHour last night they look at SF’s Chinatown’s reaction to the pandemic. They have been exceedingly successful under extreme conditions:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-planning-and-early-action-helped-san-franciscos-chinatown-control-coronavirus
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-05/02/c_139026377.htm
May 2, 2020
How Italy’s biggest Chinese community emerges unscathed from coronavirus
By Federico Grandesso and Wang Zichen
PRATO — As more than 207,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases have been reported in Italy, the Chinese community living in the Tuscan city of Prato have stood out with zero infections.
In February, when hundreds of ethic Chinese came back after spending the traditional Spring Festival in China, which was then badly hit by the novel coronavirus, they immediately took various protective measures for fear that they could inadvertently bring the virus back to their adopted home.
They donned masks, closed businesses, sheltered at home, pulled children from schools, and even floated self-imposed collective isolation — putting the returnees in dedicated hotel rooms — to minimize their contact with local neighborhoods, in what was then considered an overreaction well ahead of the Italian national lockdown.
Almost three months later, a sense of vindication has dawned on the most densely-populated Chinese community in Europe, as tens of thousands of ethnic Chinese in Prato have so far emerged remarkably unscathed from the pandemic….
Very interesting post and thread, thanks.
I am concerned that states in the Northeast will see a resurgence as they re-open. Boston just went to a new stage of re-opening this week, despite several weeks of no progress against the virus.