Total confirmed US infections: 7,605,218*
Average infections last 7 days: 46,869
Total US deaths: 212,762
*Actual number is probably 5 to 7 million higher, or about 4% of the total US population
In the last 4 weeks, the average number of new infections has risen again. Here is the breakdown by regions:
Here is the same for deaths:
The early outbreak in the NYC metro area remains the single most deadly outbreak per capita by far. So here is the rate of deaths for the past 12 weeks:
The South and parts of the West, which were the epicenters of the second outbreak during the summer, have seen their numbers decline, while the Midwest in particular has seen its number increase sharply. The increase in the Northeast is primarily being driven by Massachusetts and Rhode Island, although NY and NJ have seen significant new increases as well.
What we have seen since the pandemic started is that, when it gets out of control, there is a pain threshold after which States take action – like enforcing mask-wearing and closing bars – and individuals get serious about limiting their exposure, that brings the rate of new infections down. A very good example is in the below graph, which tracks those States in the South which were at the epicenter of the summer outbreak:
All of them (except Tennessee) have seen their rates of infection decline by more than 50% since then.
The same is true for Arizona, California, and Nevada in the West:
Meanwhile, States in the Upper Midwest and Mountain areas, which had very low infections rates during the first few months of the pandemic, were lax and have let their infection rates grow out of control:
They are now reaching the pain threshold, so we can expect counter-measures to finally be enacted, or taken voluntarily by individuals, to stem the spread.
It seems that every State in every region has to learn the hard way. Getting lax leads to severe outbreaks, which leads to panic and vigilance – which ebbs over time in turn.
What you say makes sense except the politics gums it up. Not sure that the Plains states and Mountainwest states will not shoot for “ herd immunity”. Wisconsin is suffering big time because of the state GOP and the morons who keep electing them—drinking culture does not help. I have a brother— college graduate—who believes everything the MIC says. Meanwhile a 57 year old immune compromised sister is Covid positive with infiltrate in her lungs and the rural hospital sends her home with an antibiotic because they have no beds. One of her sons actually told her to “suck it up”. In my lifetime the GOP has always looked out for the rich and powerful, but it has literally become a “ law of the jungle “ party.
Terry
Come to my post and say the same to the Wisconsinite who comments there and who says similar and refuses to say the Repubs own this Covid thing.
Terry:
If she will listen to you, suggest she take Zinc several times a day as directed on a bottle. Her body is probably depleted from the onslaught of Covid. Zinc will help prevent the virus from replicating. Zinc and here: also Zinc. Taken early on, it appears to have an impact. It is to be taken as a lozenge, sucked on, and every few hours.
PS: There is no suck it up like the young sh*thead said.
“One of her sons actually told her to “suck it up”. ”
Stuff like this makes me think we need to bring back caning.
Thank you for the tip Run—I have passed it on. As to my sh*thead nephew, I try not to be a “ get off my lawn” old man but sometimes it is hard. His brothers are much more solicitous of their mother’s well being.
Convincing people of how this virus spreads is a challenge. I can point at a couple of things in Wisconsin that got considerable notice within the state that were hard to understand First, the in-person voting in the April primary was supposed to be exceptionally dangerous. But months later the hard look at it suggests that it was a total nothing as far as virus spread. Then there was a local uproar when Brown county decided to go ahead with the county fair in mid-August. The event went on and there was a rise in infections in Brown county, but weeks too late to think it was driven by the fair. If there were any infections from the fair, it has been kept pretty quiet.
My gut feel is that instead of a ‘lax then strict” cycle, possibly what you see is after a spike a locality will experience a decrease in the consequences of rather constant behavior. My physical therapist was part of a group of about a dozen male friends that would gather in a particular bar to watch Packer games they did not have tickets for. He suspended his participation as he has a business totally dependent on personal interactions. But 8 guys came down with confirmed cases recently after such a get together. But they are now through their isolation and plan to get together for the Buccaneers game next week. Their behavior will be the same but the consequences for them has gone down. Their doctors are telling them not to do it for “visible solidarity” reasons but confirm that they won’t be at risk themselves or for others for at least a few months. They were part of the on-going Wisconsin spike but will also be sort of saturating the Stadium View bar with infection fire breaks….sort of a mini-Sweden developing in the most socially active parts of our community. Remember those simulations with the bouncing balls that change color when infected and then again when no longer able to infect? The surge finds most of the “fast” balls and when they are out of the loop for transmission they still are moving fast but not doing anything really. Infection continues among the slower balls, but that process is a lot slower. The speed (or behavior) of none of the people changes much, but the group consequences diminish.
Eric:
This current predicament still remains:
RECENTLY: Wisconsin a state of 5.8 million people surpassed Florida (400 people /sq. mile) a state of 21.4 million with a population density greater than Wisconsin (107 people /sq mile) in the number of new cases of Covid. Area of each state in square miles is the same. How do you surpass the rate of infection in Florida with 25% of the number of people in Wisconsin? How do you do this? Enlighten me with some of your liberty BS which you are espousing here for you alone without regard to your practice of it endangering the people around you. The I got mine, screw you attitude. Wisconsin Republican legislature and Court has certainly shown how you handle a pandemic, haven’t they?
Indeed the contraction numbers are increasing and Wisconsin is beating out Florida, facts you can not ignore.
Run, you should stop extrapolating to positions I have not taken here. How is it possible that you come up with me indicating a “screw you attitude” from what I just wrote? Is it now some kind of thought crime to propose that restrictive measures are not the most plausible explanation for diminished infection after a surge or spike of cases? Likewise how would it not be a “screw you attitude” to promote costly restrictions if those turn out not to be a primary cause of reduced infection? My kids are not in school since last Monday and the reasons are revealing.
It has nothing to do with viral transmission in the schools. Nope, they closed down because the rules under which they opened was driving a lot of isolation days on healthcare personnel, to clear households after some other kid in their kids class might have been exposed. These critical medical personnel often had to wait 2 to 5 days on tests of other people that turned out to be negative nearly every time. So if the rules do not really protect the school community, well just change them to make more sense, right? No again because the insurance providers claim that eventually a child will have a bad case and changing the rules will be a multimillion dollar mistake. So the healthcare providers went to a full-court press to get schools shut down, not to protect kids at all but to get their people out of the rules house of mirrors. They believe their staff can find a way to muddle through on-line school and childcare, but they could not avoid lots of lost days from the school rules enforcement. As to the kids that were going to schools with 6 weeks of COVID-free in-person instruction I guess the message is “screw you kids”.