Today marked yet another week of glacial progress in initial jobless claims, at levels worse than the worst weekly levels of the Great Recession.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 5,312 to 804,307. After seasonal adjustment (which is far less important than usual at this time), claims fell by 9,000 to 840,000, another new pandemic low. The 4-week moving average also declined by 13,250 to a new pandemic low of 857,000:
Here is a close-up of the last two months highlighting the glacial progress in initial claims during the past 7 weeks:
Continuing claims declined on a non-adjusted basis declined by -1,010,280 to 10,612,021. With seasonal adjustment they declined by 1,003,000 to 10,976,000. Both of these numbers are also new pandemic lows:
Continuing claims are now about 60% below their worst level from the beginning of May, but remain about 4 million higher than their worst levels during the Great Recession.
There has been only a very slow downward movement in new jobless claims over the past nine weeks. The pandemic shock recession is gradually turning into something much more chronic, with more long-term damage that will be more difficult to remedy.
Burying the lede:
“but remain about 4 million higher than their worst levels during the Great Recession.”
I’ll take “these are green shoots seriously when the first weekly initial claims digit becomes a 5 or 6 instead of an 8. (Still too high, but at least a sign of life.)
Retailers still hoping to be saved by Xmas shopping better have an alternative plan.
The Hilltop Mall has been struggling for years; losing first JCPenneys, then Sears, … Now most of it is leased to —– Amazon.
Can you comment on the effect of the PUA levels? To me, it seems that actually doubles the rate of unemployment but I am sure that is too simplistic.
Hopefully, we will have a new president and a Democratic majority in the Senate next January and we can tackle the 4 crises we face at least 3 of which are closely intertwined—pandemic, economy and climate. No expectation of quick fixes on any but at least we can slow down the bleeding and transfuse some of the folks who are never going to get their old jobs or businesses back, a number that is only going to get larger until February 2021 because of the MIC and Moscow Mitch.
Layoffs in flight for health insurers to cut costs trying to offset rising payouts for Covid-19 treatment. Airlines poised for yet more layoffs. United Technologies just announced 15K layoffs in the NE. Seasonal retail jobs might offset the employment numbers of corporate layoffs, but not even close to the payroll and aggregate demand.