Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Leading sector benchmark job revisions were almost all seriously negative

– by New Deal democrat Before I get to the main point at hand, let me make a quick note about this morning’s existing home sales report for January: it was more of the same. Sales remained within the sideways range they have been in for nearly the past three years; prices were nearly flat YoY, […]

Oh Canada

Over the past year, Trump has been undermining the US tourism business. “Inbound travel from all countries to the United States was down 5.4 percent from January through November of 2025, according to the US Commerce Department’s National Travel and Tourism Office. But it’s Canadians who have been staying away in the largest numbers. In […]

Unresolved post-pandemic seasonality likely continues in jobless claims

– by New Deal democrat Unresolved post-pandemic seasonality likely continues to rear its head. This is a probable explanation for yesterday’s strong monthly gain in employment, and it appears to be behind the trend in this morning’s jobless claims report as well.  Later this morning as promised yesterday I will discuss at some length the nature […]

Pollution Costs vs Benefits of Clean Air

It has been a while since I have seen a rather good presentation analysis on how benefits gain out way the costs of pollution. In its brevity the analysis by Prof. McCabe offers up an excellent cost analysis which makes one wonder why? Why has the nation delayed in doing this if there is such […]

January jobs report: superb monthly gains, but the birds came home to roost for 2025

– by New Deal democrat This is the month the birds came home to roost, at least for the year 2025. While the month over month numbers were almost all positive, some strongly so (a repeat of what we saw last January as well, so beware unresolved seasonality), the benchmark revisions were brutal. Which is likely […]

Pharmaceuticals, Drug Stores. and PBMs

What private equity typically does when they buy into a company in trouble? Typically, they will strip a company of assets. What Matt is writing about is the application of public utility rules to control their methods of business, Rules are not open to interpretation as are laws. I have not seen this piece by […]

Navigating The Medicaid Healthcare System

A lengthy piece with plenty of diagrams to assist in understanding. This brief gauges Medicaid enrollees’ perspectives on their health insurance, based on findings from KFF’s Survey of Consumer Experiences with Health Insurance, fielded February 21 through March 14, 2023. “A Look at Navigating the Health Care System: Medicaid Consumer Perspectives,” KFF – by Amaya […]

Real retail sales turn down monthly and YoY in December, boding poorly for employment

– by New Deal democrat Real retail sales, one of my favorite broad-economy indicators, was updated through December this morning — still stale by one month, as under normal circumstances January’s numbers would have been released this week.  Still, with consumer spending being about 70% of the entire economy, this is one of the most […]

Tariffs Bite into Tax Refunds

Erica York (VP Tax Foundation) discusses how the Trump tariffs will cut into the income tax relief for all tax brackets due. Read on . . . We’ve spent a lot of time in this newsletter tracking the surge in tariff revenue over the past year. Now it’s tax filing season, and those two stories are colliding. Recent […]

Expect shelter inflation to continue abating in the next few CPI reports

– by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news until Wednsday’s jobs report, as to which Scott Bessent gave an interview this morning on CNBC which amounted to, “Don’t Panic!!!” Which I am sure inspires confidence in everybody (I’ve been expecting downward revisions to much of last year as part of the annual benchmarking, so […]