Except for fictitious shelter and vehicle repairs, September inflation was moderate – by New Deal democrat With the main exception of fictitious shelter, consumer inflation in September remained relatively subdued, but as anticipated has stopped decelerating. First I’ll look at the headlines, then the problem children. Total inflation (blue in the graph below) rose 0.4% […]
September producer prices confirm economic tailwind has ended – by New Deal democrat My strong suspicion has been that the tailwind of declining commodity prices, typified by the big decline in gas prices in late 2022 is what allowed the US economy to grow so well so far this year, blunting the effects of major […]
A note on Middle Eastern turmoil and gas and oil prices – by New Deal democrat While we wait for producer and consumer inflation data later this week, here’s a note about gas prices. With the newest shock in the Middle East, conventional wisdom is that the price of oil and gas will spike. And […]
Scenes from the September jobs report: a look at leading indicators – by New Deal democrat Today is a holiday, so no new economic news. So let’s take a look at some of the leading indicators I was tracking last week for the employment report, and some leading indicators for the economy within that report […]
If you get a chance, wander over to Seeking Alpha and read New Deal democrat’s very thorough take on the economy. You can set up a fee, limited account there. AB Weekly Indicators for October 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While interest […]
Medicare Advantage Overbilling Taxpayers by $140 Billion a Year, This is Enough to Wipe Out Medicare Premiums, Informed Comment, Juan Cole and Jake Johnson. AB‘s Joel sent me an Informed Comment article. I read the article and knew there was more to the issue than just overcharging the government by upcoding Medicare Advantage plan members. […]
An excellent headline jobs number may mask unresolved seasonality, while unemployment weakness “stuck” at a higher level – by New Deal democrat As per my reporting earlier this week, my focus this month was on whether wage and jobs growth continue to decelerate, and whether the unemployment rate would remain “sticky” at its higher, 3.8%, […]
I have been thinking about buprenorphine, naltrexone and the stimulants cocaine and methamphetamine. An issue which came to my mind recently and which I think it worth discussing is that cocaine is often cut and replaced with fentanyl to hide the over-dilution. This is sometimes done sloppily leading to fentanyl overdoses of people who did […]
No that is not the real story here today. It does give a perspective on why so many too big, too fast, and too often vehicles are eating up limited supplies of gasoline and oil. However, what is being missed is we are not buying more oil for the Strategic Oil Reserve. Although, I am […]
Very strong initial jobless claims probably the result of unresolved post-pandemic seasonality – by New Deal democrat It continues to be reasonably clear that there is some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in initial jobless claims, which nose-dived last September and rebounded during October. So far the same pattern is evident this year. To wit, initial claims […]