For most, economics is about earning enough to be able to buy the requisite goods and services — to make ends meet. Having a little left over for that rainy day, perhaps retirement, would be very nice. In a good economy, most can. For the past forty-plus years, an ever larger percentage of Americans have […]
– by New Deal democrat Last Friday I summarized the jobs report as “show[ing] a contracting jobs market in all important metrics except the headlines (which, for the record, were positive). …[A]lmost] all of the important leading metrics … were negative, [including the] goods-producing sectors – manufacturing, construction (including residential construction), and temporary jobs – declined, as […]
– by New Deal democrat First, usually the week following the employment report is very quiet, and I put up “scenes from the report” with some important graphs. With all the releases catching up on old data this week, I haven’t done that; but because jobless claims are the only significant data this morning, I intend […]
– by New Deal democrat Although the government shutdown is long over, the most recent government housing updates have been for October, I.e., two months stale. Thus the NAR’s existing home sales report has temporarily become among our best look at housing sales, prices, and inventorythe housing market. As per my context all this year, after […]
– by New Deal democrat Real retail sales, one of my favorite broad-economy indicators, was updated through November this morning, making only one month stale. This, along with real personal spending, is one of the two most important indicators which have been missing, as we know the jobs and real income have been stagnant, but […]
Look, here’s the thing about money: it isn’t real. It’s all about belief and trust. I’ve been invested in equities and money markets for over 40 years. I’ve ridden the ups and downs. Money only means what people say it means, neither more nor less. Alfred North Whitehead coined the “fallacy of misplaced concreteness.” He […]
– by New Deal democrat New home sales were updated for the second time since the shutdown, with data only through October – i.e., stale. The silver lining is that this is a long leading indicator, so it remains of value. Normally I save inventory for last, but in view of the importance of new […]
– by New Deal democrat We finally got our first “regular” CPI report since September this morning. Caution is still warranted, however, because the October-November kludge is still present in the base from which December’s monthly change was calculated. But the bottom line is that the series’ all reverted to their pre-shutdown trend, with the […]
If you’ve noticed you are paying more these days for milk and oranges, Tuesday’s inflation report is unlikely to surprise you. The report shows U.S. inflation cooling slightly in December. But it also demonstrates how the price pressures consumers actually notice with regard to food, energy, commodities other than the former, and services other than services. You have probably […]
– by New Deal democrat On Friday housing permits, starts, and units under construction were finally reported for the first time in four months, since September’s report for August. The bad news is that the report only updated through October, so we are still two months behind. The very qualified good news is that, since […]