Part Three of a commentary (broken into parts) about Social Security. Dale Coberly discusses with AI (Artificial Intelligence) Social Security. The topic about Social Security? How it can be saved as it is today without major cuts to it. This is really hard to discuss with people. Many believe it would take a vast amount […]
“Rhetoric Is Not Reform: The Good Life Can Not Be an Applause Line,” Roosevelt Institute In his State of the Union address, President Trump claimed a “Golden Age of America,” insisting the economy is “roaring like never before” and pointing to market highs and headline indicators as proof. But people don’t live inside a speech. […]
– by New Deal democrat Before I get to the main object of this post, there was a little kerfluffle in the financial markets this morning about a “hot” producer price index number. Specifically, PPI for final demand increased 0.5% in January. Commodity prices also increased 0.3%. The YoY% changes were 2.8%, although raw commodity […]
In that respect, the title is correct. Immigrants whether legal or not do not use more welfare than U.S. citizens. That they do use welfare benefits can be an issue to many. However, I believe we should look more at the economic impact immigrants have on the economy whether they are legal or not. As […]
– by New Deal democrat As we move further into the calendar year, we are getting more clarity on what has been happening with jobless claims. As a reminder, I look at these because historically they have been a good short leading indicator for the unemployment rate and more broadly for the economy as a whole. […]
Started at the end rather than the beginning . . . Blocking Flu shots does not make much sense as Flu Shots are nothing new. The big issue is whether they chose the right vaccine for what will happen each year. “The Journal notes Moderna was one of nine companies to have received a surprise […]
– by New Deal democrat In a landmark paper almost 20 years ago, UCLA Prof. Edward Leamer wrote that “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” In that paper he concluded: In the years before recessions . . . consumers contribute a total of 65% of the leading weakness. In contrast, business spending contributes only 10%…. The temporal […]
– by New Deal democrat In the past month, all of the various home price indexes have confirmed abating inflation in the shelter sector. This morning the FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes were updated through December. Last week we got price information for new houses, and earlier in the month for existing homes. In this […]
The State of the Union in Numbers. A Quick and Short Review In 2025, the economy expanded as GDP increased, inflation decreased slightly, and the size of imports and exports shifted. These and other measures provide a snapshot of economic activity, prices, and the labor market heading into 2026. How was the economy doing? In 2025, […]
– by New Deal democrat Last week’s Q4 GDP release, as usual, updated two long leading indicators: proprietors’ income (a placeholder for corporate profits, which won’t be reported until next month at the earliest), and private residential fixed investment, a proxy for housing. They were of particular interest this time because, while the normalized yield […]