Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

“ICE in My Latte, Not in Our Communities”

What is happening down in Arizona? These businesses will be giving up Friday’s revenue by shutting down a day in protest of the government’s actions and the killing of Alex Pretti and Renee Good by Federal authorities. ~~~~~~~ “Local businesses closing Friday (January 31, 2026) to protest ICE raids,” The Copper Courier Fair Trade Cafe in […]

Economically weighted regional Fed indexes for January suggest continued stagflationary pressures [Update: PPI as well]

– by New Deal democrat To briefly reiterate, although the government shutdown ended over two months ago, much of the official monthly data – including on sales and spending – is stale, dating to November and even earlier. So the most current measures of these are the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports, due next week, and […]

Jobless claims: the positive regime change continues, suggesting a lower unemployment rate ahead

 – by New Deal democrat Let’s take our normal weekly look at jobless claims. As a general reminder, these are a good high frequency short leading indicator for the economy as a whole, and also somewhat noisily for the monthly unemployment rate. In the past several months, I have highlighted what appears to be a “regime […]

Manufacturing Headcount has Been Decreasing in the US for Years

It is no surprise to see it still decreasing. It would still be decreasing with a different president too. Much of my experience has been spent in helping companies with the use of flow through analysis of manufacturing and materials. When I read this short piece, it was no surprise that it has not improved. […]

Regional Fed manufacturing indexes suggest rebound continued in January, with continued inflationary (tariff-related?) pressures

 – by New Deal democrat Although the last federal government shutdown has been over for 2.5 months — and a new one might begin this weekend — with the exception of a few headline indicators like inflation, industrial production, and employment, most of the data is still lagging by at least one month, i.e., it has […]

Wealth Tax in California

I follow Robert Reich daily missives on his site. I did subscribe to it. Robert has a habit of commenting on issues or things I would like to know more about. I do agree with much of what he says so it may be one reason why I read him. The topic of today’s commentary […]

Repeat home sales indices for November indicate continued rebalancing vs. new home prices — at a glacial pace

 – by New Deal democrat For the past year, my view has been that the housing market is in recessionary territory, although that has not translated to the economy as a whole. As per usual, home sales lead house prices; and that trend continued with the Case Shiller and FHFA repeat sales house price indexes through […]

Stale data watch: manufacturers’ new orders soared in November — more evidence of AI data center building?

 – by New Deal democrat With another likely government shutdown looming at the end of this week due to DHS funding, we are still playing catch-up from the last one that ended in November. This morning’s edition of stale data was durable goods manufacturing for November. One of the stories of the latter part of last […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators January 19-23

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The trends from last year are continuing so far this year. On the plus side, initial jobless claims are very low while stock prices continue near all time highs, and consumer spending is on a tear. On the minus side, the US$ started […]