Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Changes in Employment

I do not know if readers are keeping up with the news on employment or not. So, I decided to go back to December and grab one of Dean Baker’s commentaries on Manufacturing Jobs lost during Trump’s first year. Since the beginning of 2025, the economy has been losing jobs, This was not just in […]

Economic cycle indicators update: the Autumn Shutdown Stall

 – by New Deal democrat Now that we have the very important personal income and spending data through November, here is a look at the widely acknowledged monthly indicators that the NBER has highlighted in determining whether the economy is continuing to expand, or is contracting. The below link includes nonfarm payrolls (blue), industrial production (red), […]

No mini-recession during the government shutdown, as consumers raided their piggy banks to spend

 – by New Deal democrat The news from this morning’s personal income and spending report for October and November was almost all good – with one major exception. To cut to the chase, real income rose slightly, but real spending rose substantially. Which, if you are following basic math, means that consumers dipped into their […]

More evidence of a positive “regime change” in jobless claims: is it tied to the immigration crackdown?

 – by New Deal democrat We will get the very important personal income and spending updates for the government shutdown months later this morning, which should finally tell us whether or not there was a mini-recession during that time. In the meantime, let’s take our regular weekly look at jobless claims, as to which, to reiterate, […]

Stale data watch: construction spending for October — more “green shoots”?

– by New Deal democrat Originally housing permits and starts through December were supposed to be updated this morning, but that has now been put off another week. In the meantime, we did get some data, albeit stale, about the important leading sector of construction, in the form of the construction spending report through October. And […]

Paying for Social Security Redux

A rerun of a S.S. commentary by Dale Coberly. “HOW TO PAY FOR SOCIAL SECURITY” was written by Dale Coberly and posted by Dan Crawford on Angry Bear September 9, 2010. Of course, Dan died as well as Bruce Webb, Dale retired from Angry Bear after doing years of excellent commentary, I have not talked […]

US has Largely Turned into a Banana Republic in Political and Economic terms

“Record low labor share: corporate profits are at their most extreme levels ever compared with nonsupervisory payrolls,”  – by New Deal democrat An I’ve read a few takes in the past week or so about the declining “labor share” of GDP. To cut to the chase, here’s a link to that exact graph:  In case you are […]

A powerful new tailwind behind the economy: the “real” price of gas

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no new data of note today or tomorrow, so in the meantime (aside from observing Martin Luther King’s birthday) let me take a look at a very important, if small piece of economic data: the “real” price of gas. Gas price shocks have been important precipitants of a number of […]

Industrial production sets new post-pandemic high in December – but mainly due to utilities

– by New Deal democrat Industrial production is much less central to the US economic picture than it was before the “China shock,” but it remains an important if diminished economic indicator, particularly since the month it has peaked in the past has typically been the month the NBER has chosen as the economic cycle peak. […]

Let them eat cake

The privileged elitists on Trump’s cabinet can’t help themselves. They broadcast how, like Trump himself, they’re out of touch. “Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins made waves this week with claims that the Trump administration’s revamped food pyramid leaves plenty of room for Americans to maintain a healthy diet for as little as $3 a meal. “In […]