Oil Prices are Up
Gasoline around us is still high and about $3.25. What are you seeing for price per gallon of gasoline? They keep talking about a drop. We have not seen it. Charts and graphs emphasizing what is happening with oil, where US oil comes from (imports) and goes to (exports). See the first chart for the comparison. Canada is also a big supplier of crude oil to the US.
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Is the US a bigger oil importer or exporter? USAFacts
Oil prices jumped overnight as markets reacted to the escalation in the region, following a joint U.S.-Israel strike. West Texas Intermediate futures rose more than 5% while Brent crude futures gained about 6%, both off their overnight highs but still sharply elevated. As Trump declares inflation tamed, Iran conflict threatens new price pressures
The increase in oil prices adds another layer to recent indicators that, while inflation is well off its highs of a few years ago, underlying price pressures remain. Historically, surges in energy costs have often preceded broader inflation increases.
Generally speaking, “war has proven to be ‘inflationary,’ as it is associated with negative supply shocks,” wrote Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. “Indeed, even before the new U.S.-Iran war, oil prices were higher on hoarding, and since hostilities began, prices are being pushed up by higher insurance premiums and forced re-routing of maritime shipping.”
Oil Prices are Up
In 2025, the US exported more crude oil and petroleum products than it imported.
Petroleum and petroleum product exports totaled about 10.7 million barrels per day, while imports were about 7.9 million barrels a day. That’s a -2.8 million barrel a day difference.
Crude oil is a fossil fuel that can be refined into petroleum products such as jet fuel and gasoline. The US used to consistently import more petroleum and crude oil than it exported. But exports exceeded imports starting in October 2019. It’s been a net exporter in all but seven months since then.
Crude oil comprised 78% of US imports in the category, while other petroleum products were the largest export, at 63% in 2025.
Who gets US petroleum exports?
In 2025, the top five countries receiving US petroleum and crude oil exports were:
The Netherlands (11%)
Mexico (10%)
Canada (8%)
South Korea (7%)
Japan (6%)
The remaining 58% was exported to 125 other geographies.
Of all petroleum exports, 37% was crude oil.
Where does the US import petroleum from?
Of the petroleum and crude oil that the US imported in 2025, the majority was from Canada. The top five exporters to the US were:
- Canada (57%)
- Mexico (6%)
- Saudi Arabia (4%)
- Iraq (3%)
- Brazil (3%)
The remaining 27% came from 63 other countries, territories, or other areas of special sovereignty.
Of all oil and petroleum imports, 78% was crude oil, and 22% were petroleum products, such as hydrocarbon gas liquids, liquefied petroleum gases, fuel ethanol, biofuels, kerosene, and others.
Also: “As Trump declares inflation tamed, Iran conflict threatens new price pressures,” CNBC
Trump is claiming <$2/gallon gas. Who ya gonna believe, Trump or your lyin' eyes? Last I saw here in Rhode Island, regular was around $2.80/gallon. I expect that to increase significantly in the coming days. Headline in The Boston Globe this morning: The average price for a gallon of gasoline jumped 11 cents overnight to about $3.11 in the US, according to AAA
The person in the White House has helped to create additional price increases beyond the usual Summer price increases. The latter occurs in June as the refiners switch to a Summer blend for California and Arizona, etc. I do not have an issue with such as we drive fuel efficient vehicles 2015 Passat and 2025 Mazda. Both are well powered by 4-cylinder engines which are also fuel efficient.
If I read the report correctly, there appears to be plenty of oil and also refinery capacity.
Additional Information for 2026:
EIA forecasts lower oil prices in 2026 and 2027 due to persistent stock builds
Matching up Projected Inventory, Consumption, and Production:
EIA forecasts oil lower oil prices in 2026 and 2027 due to persistent stock builds
“We (EIA) forecast that production of petroleum and other liquids will continue to exceed global demand, which results in Brent crude oil prices falling from an average of $69 per barrel (b) in 2025 to $58/b in 2026 and $53/b in 2027. Crude oil prices tend to decrease as global petroleum stocks increase. Persistently high implied global oil inventory builds in the near-term are putting downward pressure on crude oil prices despite heightened uncertainty around the volume of crude oil exports from Russia and Venezuela.”
I would guess the lower prices will not happen in much of the United States (sans AZ, CA, etc,) due to Trump bombing away some of the capacity of oil. Not including refinement, etc.
$2.49 is the lowest I have seen in greater Denver.
But, we drive a VW ID.4 so I don’t care.
Dave:
WE are relatively gasoline efficient ourselves. AZ 347 going from Maricopa to Phoenix is a raceway even with three sets of lights on it. Two lanes each way and a speed limit of 65 mph. It is over capacity given the population growth.
65 mph to them in a mere suggestion too them. We do ~ 70 mph in the right lane. Many zoom past us, which is fine with me. The end of the highway is 14 miles up. The highway has three stop lights on it. If they struck all green lights during the drive, the time to get to the end is ~12 minutes.
The need for speed does not make sense in this case. It barely makes sense when you are going much further. One will not get to the destination much sooner