Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Disappointing weekly increase in new jobless claims, but monthly trend improves

Disappointing weekly increase in new jobless claims, but monthly trend improves; expect a 200,000+ number of new jobs in next Employment Report  – by New Deal democrat New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether my suspicion is […]

Big (weather related) declines in February production and sales

Big (weather related) declines in February production and sales This morning (Tuesday) we got the most important single metrics for both the consumer and producer side of the economy for February, respectively, retail sales and industrial production. Both were big misses, one explicitly and the other likely due to the big freeze in Texas and […]

Producer Prices rose 0.5% in February

Commenter and writer RJS (Marketwatch666) reports on February Producer Prices. Producer Prices rose 0.5% in February on Higher Wholesale Food & Energy Prices The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.5% in February, as prices for finished wholesale goods were on average 1.4% higher, while margins of final services providers increased by 0.1%…that […]

The Long Term Consequences of Economic Downturns

Chairman Powell, Secretary Yellen, and President Biden have recently spoken about the long term consequences for many of economic downturns. More should, more often. The Media should recognize how important this is; ask the question whenever it needs to be asked. The Congress should put this front and center in any and all discussions about […]

New jobless claims continue to decline

New jobless claims continue to decline, just above the pandemic low New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether my suspicion that, as a critical mass of those vaccinated is reached, there will be a veritable surge […]

February consumer inflation begins to heat up a little

February consumer inflation begins to heat up a little Seasonally adjusted consumer prices rose 0.4% in February. As a result, over the past several months there has been a significant uptick in YoY inflation to 1.7% from 1.1% in November.  Aside from the pandemic, for the past 40 years, recessions had happened when CPI less […]

During the wintertime pandemic surge, hiring hit a brick wall

January JOLTS report: during the wintertime pandemic surge, hiring hit a brick wall Yesterday morning’s JOLTS report for January was confirmatory of the weak jobs report for that month, showing a largely paused recovery. Further, for the second month in a row, hires were down sharply. Let’s examine this in accord with the data from […]

When should we begin a see a real improvement back towards “full employment”?

Pandemic job losses: when should we begin a see a real improvement back towards “full employment”? Let’s take a deeper look at where employment stands as we begin to see the end of the pandemic in sight. As I and many others noted last Friday, although with the exception of one month there have been […]

CPI Rose 0.4% in February on Higher Prices for Energy and Medical Services

Commenter R.J.S. Discuses CPI Rising led by Food, Energy, and Medical The consumer price index rose 0.4% in February, as higher prices for fuel, groceries, utilities, and medical services were only partly offset by lower prices for clothing, used vehicles, and airline fares…the Consumer Price Index Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that seasonally adjusted prices […]