Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

June JOLTS report: at last, new hires (slightly) outpace record job openings

June JOLTS report: at last, new hires (slightly) outpace record job openings This morning’s (Aug. 9) JOLTS report for May was the best we have seen since the immediate rebound from the pandemic lockdowns.  There was yet another record level continued all of the unfilled job openings, yet another new record low in layoffs and […]

Job Openings Increase 590,000 in June after May Revised 270,000

June Job Openings at Record High after May Record Revised Higher; Commenter RJS from MarketWatch 666; Record Low Layoffs; Hiring, Quitting, Retiring All Much Higher The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for June from the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that seasonally adjusted job openings rose by 590,000, from 9,483,000 in May to 10,073,000 […]

Initial jobless claims continue in range, while continuing claims sharply decline

Initial jobless claims continue in range, while continuing claims sharply decline Initial jobless claims declined another 14,000 this week to 385,000, still 17,000 above their best pandemic levels of 368,000 set on June 26 and July 10. The 4 week average of claims declined by 250 to 394,000, also 9,500 above its pandemic low set […]

July jobs report: more like this, please

July jobs report: more like this, please While the NBER has declared that the recession ended in April 2020, and income, sales, and GDP have all fully recovered, two of the series that the NBER uses have yet to have made a full recovery: Industrial production, still down -1.2% compared with February 2020, and employment, […]

Weekly Indicators for August 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for August 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Although the Delta wave is raging, nothing is impacting behavior. Neither producers nor consumers appear to have altered their behavior in any significant way at all because of the Delta. As usual, clicking […]

Initial jobless claims continue in range, while continuing claims sharply decline

Initial jobless claims continue in range, while continuing claims sharply decline Initial jobless claims declined another 14,000 this week to 385,000, still 17,000 above their best pandemic levels of 368,000 set on June 26 and July 10. The 4 week average of claims declined by 250 to 394,000, also 9,500 above its pandemic low set […]

Manufacturing sector continues to be on fire; but real construction spending plunges

Manufacturing sector continues to be on fire; but real construction spending plunges August data started out mixed.  The ISM manufacturing index continued to show strong expansion. Both the overall and new orders components declined slightly m/m, but at 59.5 and 64.9 remained far about the breakeven point between expansion and contractions of 50.0: The simplest […]

If you’re a progressive, the design and implementation of the new Child Tax Credit should worry you

The American Rescue Plan included a fully refundable child tax credit.  The credit provides $3,600 per year for children under 6, and $3,000 per year for children between 6 and 17. The credit is paid out monthly, and slowly phases out for single parents who earn more than $112,500 and married couples earning more than […]