Housing construction continues to stabilize, but with record bottleneck in starts Last month I highlighted that housing constructions were stabilizing, following the stabilization in interest rates. This month continued that trend. In October, housing starts (green in the graphs below) decreased -0.7% m/m, while the more leading total permits (blue) increased 4.0%. The less volatile […]
Dems Continue To Sink Despite Improving Economy On the first page of today’s Washington Post was reported a poll showing that when a random sample was asked, 46% said they would vote for a generic Republican candidate for Congress versus 43% for a generic Democratic candidate. Given reported further pro-GOP gerrymandering, if this were to […]
Now *that’s* good news: another blockbuster real retail sales report Yesterday I wrote that the financial and production sides of the economy still looked very positive and that today’s retail sales number would be especially important. Well, they were very positive, clocking in at up 1.7% month over month in October. Even after inflation, “real” […]
Coronavirus dashboard for November 12: regional variations and the winter wave There’s a glitch in 91-Divoc collecting Johns Hopkins data, so the State by State totals have not been updated for several days, but here is Our World in Data’s update for the US as a whole: As of yesterday, cases are up only 3.5% […]
Dear Democrats: Yes, inflation is a problem [Update: I see where Larry Summers has obviously read my piece below, and says, “I agree with NDD!” (Just teasing)] In the past few days, I have seen a spate of articles and tweets from prominent partisans and economists telling Democrats not to worry about inflation, either because […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Surprisingly, given the big increase in the CPI (that is likely to continue via “owner’s equivalent rent”), almost all the indicators across all timeframes remain positive. As usual, clicking over and reading will […]
September JOLTS report: slow progress towards a new equilibrium This morning’s JOLTS report covers September, at the beginning of which the Delta wave peaked and then gradually receded for the remainder of the month. It is also the month that the last of pandemic emergency benefits ended. We did see the second consecutive decline in […]
Seldom do we get the chance to build something the way it should be. For the internet, the first chance was back in the 1990s. Not enough was known then. We’ve learned a lot the hard way since. Let us begin our design by asking, “How best to utilize the internet?” It is apparent that […]
by New Deal democrat Why Yesterday’s CPI report was so important As promised, here is a link to my article, Why Yesterday’s CPI Report was such a Big Deal, over at Seeking Alpha. I go into a great deal of detail parsing the report, particularly with regard to how the huge increase in house prices as […]
Producer price inflation: it’s a gas! I normally do not pay much attention to producer prices, but with the huge increase in spending earlier this year and the ensuing supply bottlenecks taking center stage, the course of inflation has emerged as the most pressing economic issue. To recap briefly, with the second round of pandemic […]