Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

US Debt, Problems, and Fixes

Discussing US Debt looked interesting enough to post on Angry Bear. I do not agree with the proposed fixes as I believe there are other fixes which would resolve the issues mentioned. Perhaps you have better ideas? Addressing Rising US Debt by Karen Dynan Econofact, The Issue: United States Federal debt rose sharply after the […]

FHFA and Case Shiller repeat sales indexes show YoY price growth has peaked; slow deceleration in shelter CPI should continue

 – by New Deal democrat This week’s data focuses on house prices and new home sales, and the more important personal income and spending report on Friday. In the housing data I am looking at any movement towards rebalancing between new and existing home sales. To recapitulate, the big increase in mortgage rates has locked […]

“lowering out-of-pocket costs” number one health care concern

The International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans found employers are projecting a 7 percent hike for health care costs in 2024. Aon projected the average costs for U.S. employers paying for their employees’ health care could increase 8.5 percent to more than $15,000 per employee in 2024. Voters remember the pain, not the gain by […]

Travelin’ man

New Deal democrat at The Bonddad Blog takes a vacation day. On the road again . . .   Fortunately, there’s no significant economic news today, so a perfect day to play hooky. See you tomorrow.

Moody’s Analytics; cooling inflation, economic growth of 2.1% v. an economic disaster

AB: I am not sure how Republicans will sugar coat Trump’s economic plans for 2025. June 23, 2024 Prof. Heather Cox Richardson Letters from an American On Thursday, Moody’s Analytics, which evaluates risk, performance, and financial modeling, compared the economic promises of President Joe Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump. Authors Mark Zandi, Brendan […]

“Trump’s latest notion is both economically and fiscally illiterate”

July 31, 1789, the U.S. Congress passed the last of three acts providing for administering customs tariffs and collecting duties. On the nation’s birthday, the Tariff Act of July 4, 1789, had been passed by Congress followed by the Duties on Tonnage statute on July 20. Mainly, they provided operating revenue for the government. From […]

Snail’s pace of housing market rebalancing, as existing sales remain range bound, and inventory has not increased enough to relieve pricing pressure

 – by New Deal democrat Existing home sales have very limited value in economic forecasting, since they are the trade of an existing product rather than indicating growth or contraction in the creation of a new product. Thus my main focus at present on this data is the extent to which it shows – or […]

Housing permits and starts the lowest since 2020, units under construction also decline further, but no yellow caution flag yet

 – by New Deal democrat I’ve written repeatedly in the past few months that I am paying especial attention to the manufacturing and construction sectors for signs of weakness now that the supply chain tailwind for the economy has ended. At the beginning of this month, one show appeared to have dropped, as the ISM […]

Jobless claims still positive for forecasting purposes; the unresolved seasonality issue should be resolved shortly

 – by New Deal democrat This morning’s jobless claims report continued the uptrend we’ve seen for the past month. But it still looks more likely than not that it is mainly unresolved post-pandemic seasonality. We’ll probably get a more definitive answer to that issue in th next several weeks. Initial Jobless claims declined 5,000 for […]

CEOs Salary Up nearly 200 times what workers were paid last year – 2023

It appears upper management is running away with most of the compensation. Adding to this is the lowered taxes resulting from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act which was passed using Reconciliation. The TCJA is due to reverse in 2025. I am sure President Biden will reverse it for the upper 20% at least. […]