August retail sales rebound slightly, argue for continued strong jobs growth in autumn Let’s take a look at retail sales, which are perhaps my favorite monthly economic indicator, since they tell us so much about average consumer behavior, and are also a good short leading indicator for jobs.Nominally retail sales increased 0.7% for August, after […]
Jobless claims continue in normal mid-cycle range Last week I encouraged readers to take the very low jobless claims number with a grain of salt due to Labor Day artifacts, and see if the big reduction was maintained or reversed this week. This week did indeed reverse the pattern somewhat, but not enough to interfere […]
In prior posts, I argued that Australia’s covid policy can be criticized, but that it cannot simply be dismissed on the grounds that it is “authoritarian”. Here I will argue that some criticism of Australian covid policy has a distinct and troubling anti-democracy flavor to it. Tyler Cowen argues that Australia should be investing in […]
Industrial production now exceeds pre-pandemic level Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, was reported this morning for August and was positive in a particularly significant way. Total production increased 0.4% in August, and the manufacturing component increased 0.1%. Nothing particularly special about that; in fact the manufacturing component was a little weak compared with […]
A more “normal” consumer inflation reading for August belies damage to the economy going forward Inflation, along with the expiration of the emergency pandemic payment, is one of the two big threats to this expansion. This morning August consumer inflation was the lowest in 6 months, up only 0.3% – within the range of a […]
In my previous post, I argued that the only plausible way to criticize covid policy is to explain why some alternative policy mix (possibly a policy with a big dose of “no regulation”) will lead to better outcomes than the current policy regime. Libertarians often refuse to engage in this type of policy analysis. Instead, […]
Death to Farm Credit from Those on High, Farmer and Economist, Mike Smith I’m in between fall crop planting and have to focus so I am going to run this like the rancher on the clock. Farm Credit System History In 1916 when the Farm Credit System was established there were 6 million farms that employed around […]
Libertarians criticize covid policy in broad, uncompromising terms. These arguments are unproductive at best; at worst they are divisive and potentially destructive. Many are just propaganda. This does not mean that criticism of the government response to covid is off limits. The alternative to the libertarian approach is policy analysis: evaluating specific policies on their […]
August Producer Price Index Sets New YoY Record Increases for Final Demand Goods, Final Demand Services, and a 46 year High for Prices of Intermediate Goods; MarketWatch 666, Commenter RJS The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.7% in August, as prices for finished wholesale goods rose 1.0% while margins of final services […]
Beware of “The Narrative”! Back in 1979 philosopher Jean-François Lyotard was commissioned to do a report for the province of Quebec that turned into a book, The Postmodern Condition. I remember that book well because I read it during my graduate studies that focused on narrative analysis. A central theme of Lyotard’s book was the “death of […]