Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Residential building construction sound a warning for goods-producing employment

– by New Deal democrat The final data point from last week that I wanted to catch up on was construction spending, and especially residential construction and spending. As reported last week, in June total nominal spending declined -0.3% in June, but is higher 6.2% YoY. The more leading residential sector also showed a -0.4% […]

Why does JD Vance hate higher education?

American colleges and universities are the envy of the world. The American higher education system is an important driver of the economy. There are those who sneer at the educated. They only expose their insecurity. In JD Vance, Donald Trump has chosen a running mate who has publicly stated that he sees colleges and universities […]

Initial jobless claims, ex Hurricane Beryl distortions, remain very positive

 – by New Deal democrat Officially reported initial jobless claims declined -17,000 to 233,000 last week. The four-week moving average rose 750 to 240,750. With the typical one-week delay, continuing claims rose 6,000 to 1.875 million, the highest number since November 17, 2021: On the more important YoY basis, initial claims were down -9.7%, while […]

FTC to Launch Inquiry Into Higher Grocery Prices and Surveillance Pricing

FTC to Launch Inquiry into Higher Grocery Prices by Lucille Barilla @ Retail Wire FTC Chair Lina M. Khan highlighted the FTC’s recent work to stop corporate lawbreaking that raises prices for Americans, including uncovering evidence of corporate conduct that may raise the price of gas, grocery prices, working to lower the cost of many asthma […]

What difference did the COVID vaccine and masking make in the US?

The US economy appears to be emerging from the recent recession (pace the Fed interest rate decisions). There’s a general consensus that that recession was largely caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and consequent supply chain disruptions. What lessons might be learned on how to maximally blunt the impact of future pandemics while minimizing negative economic […]

Why the leading elements of the Establishment Survey in the jobs report still forecast expansion

– by New Deal democrat Continuing my catching up this week, let’s take a look in some further detail about why I didn’t think Friday’s jobs report portended recession – at least, not yet. As I always point out, the jobs report does contain some leading numbers. These are generally employment in more cyclical industries […]

Public transportation needs to be part of the global warming solution

There’s a lot of attention being paid these days to EVs and solar power, but there are plenty of other ways to decarbonize human activity. Public transportation is one. I’m certainly no stranger to public transportation. I didn’t have a car in college, so when I visited my grandmother in Johnstown or my sister in […]

Credit Conditions Improved, typical of an economy coming *out* of recession

Credit conditions in Q2 improved, and are typical of an economy having come *out* of a recession, not going in to one  – by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey, the premier quarterly measure of the loose- or tight-ness of bank lending, was published yesterday for Q2. And since lending conditions are a […]

Gene-based therapies: opportunity vs access

The advent of CAR-T and CRISPR technologies are set to revolutionize cancer and genetic disease therapies, respectively. But with great hope comes great costs. “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that approximately 100,000 people in the US have sickle cell disease, making it the most prevalent inherited blood disorder. Remarkably, the new gene […]