Dems Continue To Sink Despite Improving Economy
Dems Continue To Sink Despite Improving Economy
On the first page of today’s Washington Post was reported a poll showing that when a random sample was asked, 46% said they would vote for a generic Republican candidate for Congress versus 43% for a generic Democratic candidate. Given reported further pro-GOP gerrymandering, if this were to hold for next year’s midterms, GOP would certainly take solid control of the House, if not the Senate. Not looking good for the Dems or Biden and Harris.
Now there are certainly some things that are not looking good. Covid-19 cases have started to increase again, if not dramatically, but in 35 states at the latest report, and deaths seem to have stopped declining, if not started rising again. Of course, it may be that given that we now have 80% of adults have had at least one vax shot, we may be able to handle some increase in cases without hospitalizations and deaths rising, given that over 90% of those in hospitals and dying are unvaxxed. But this is something Biden has emphasized and worked hard on, with bad news appearing, even if this is partly due to bad non-behavior (getting vaxxed, wearing masks) among his critics.
Probably foreign policy is not part of the most recent decline, but the messy nature of the end of the Afghan war dropped Biden’s ratings by about 5% some months ago, damaging his previously generally favorable foreign policy rating. That is probably not that big a deal now, although the damage seems not to be undone, despite an apparently generally successful trip to the G20 and the Glasgow summits.
It may be that the whole noise about education and CRT spilling out of the Virginia governor’s race is adding to the Dems’ problems, but more clearly serious problem, dominating the headlines, is inflation, with the recent year to year 6.2% annualized rate report for October probably the punctuation point for today’s especially poor poll ratings. This couples with reports of impending Christmas shortages, including even for Santas, with none of this looking good. It remains unclear fully what is going on with some of these shortages, such as ports and truckers, and so on, but problems with these are now entrenched with not much improvement in sight, not to mention ongoing chip shortages pushing up prices in in the auto industry. And this price spike was especially led by energy, with rising gasoline prices in Virginia reported to have been a factor in the GOP governor’s race win, and that was something I heard a lot about just prior to the election here.
So there are certainly things that look bad or actually are bad out there on various fronts. But do they really justify these bad polls? Do people really want to elect people who are currently running around trying to kowtow to Donald J. Trump as hard as they can? There were reports about the Glasgow climate summit, but much of that got undercut by reports that it was just going to exacerbate oil and gas prices. Real climate activists found it insufficient, and others found it inflationary scary. Ugh.
Anyway, there is a lot that looks plenty good. One is the employment front. While it has not yet gotten back to pre-pandemic levels, it continues to rise and there has been an upward movement of wages. In September we had an all-time record number of quits, which presumably indicated people feeling so confident about getting a better job they quit their current job. These people are not quitting to drop out of the labor force, or not most of them, although there remains a substantial number of people out of the labor force for a variety of reasons, and there are still some unemployed who are having trouble getting re-employed. So this is not perfect, but mostly massively improving and mostly quite good.
Then we have the stock market, which Trump claimed would crash if Biden were elected. It did decline from all-time highs this past week, but the Dow still remains above the famous Glassman-Hassett level of 36,000. This is in the eyes of many still a rather overvalued market, certainly not one that has crashed. But, of course, lots of people are not so directly affected by the market.
Furthermore, Biden just signed the hard infrastructure bill today, something most polls show is highly popular, and which even drew some GOP support in Congress, although GOP leaders and Trump are out to purge or punish those who did vote for it. Unfortunately, the Dems have done a poor job of publicizing this achievement and what is in it. Obviously, they need to do more on that, although we know all sorts of GOP Congress members will brag about parts of it delivering money to their states and districts, even though they voted against it.
Finally, although there seems to be zero media recognition of this, it looks like the big surge of gasoline prices may be over. Crude oil prices have declined over the last three weeks from about $85 per barrel to about $80 per barrel, and crude prices are the main driver of retail gasoline prices with a lag. Indeed, although I have not seen national data, it looks like gasoline prices may have stopped rising at all in recent weeks, with it possible they may even decline a bit, if crude prices do not return to rising again. Where I am this has happened, a freeze at $3.29 per gallon with a 5 cent drop over the weekend. None of this is in the news, just more talk about rising gasoline prices. We shall have to see on this, but there may be a substantially lower inflation report next month. If so, will anybody notice, or will we start hearing about some other supposed horror?
Testimony to the power of constant propaganda and constant politicization of everything by any means, including mostly lying full time all day every day about everything.
and did i say money? anyone think “the media” are mostly owned by the insane Right, either directly or by having “educated” journalists to get their stories from “non partisan experts”?
or that even Biden-Harris if they are not complicit, certainly take the premises of the Right as the starting point of their policies?
little children in my neighborhood are leaving little painted rocks around saying “peace,” “love,” “sovereignty”…
An economic issue that will have everyone talking — because it’s outcome will directly affect them or some they hold dear.
An economic issue that will produce so many Democratic votes that any Republic attempt to steal elections will simply be swamped the labor law’s tsunami of support. An issue that Burger King (25% labor costs)workers and Target/Walgreen’s (10-15 labor costs) workers and Walmart (7% labor costs!) workers would kill for (never mind merely vote for).
An economic proposal that penetrates every level of the economy — and does not cost a cent to institute.
Ladies and gentleman, I present you with SEIU32J, counsel Andrew Strom’s, one size fits almost all American problems solution: https://onlabor.org/why-not-hold-union-representation-elections-on-a-regular-schedule/
The thought that any kind of labor progress will change GOP voting habits is nonsense.
I do not disagree with the mainstream media narrative that the Democrats face challenges in the midterms—largely history ( which reflects the childlike demand for instant gratification of a significant portion of the electorate), GOP gerrymandering( not a factor in the Senate) and the retirement of long serving Democrats in swing districts ( Ron Kind’ seat in Wisconsin will almost certainly switch to a hard right nut job who will give MTG a run for her money). That being said, a good deal of the dissatisfaction with Biden and the Democrats may be coming from liberal Democrats and Democratic leaning independents who are disgusted with the Democratic in fighting and the snail’s pace of efforts to hold Trump and his sycophants responsible for their crimes and attacks on democracy. These folks will not vote for Republicans but may not vote for Democrats either. The actual candidates will be important too. The Dems got a break when Sununu decided not to run for Senate. In any event I do not subscribe to the sky is falling school but think that inflation and particularly gas prices has to come down by next summer. In that regard the local paper has been filled with letters to the editors claiming the gas prices are a result of Biden shutting down pipelines and begging OPEC to increase supply. I assume these are Fox News talking points because I do not know of any pipelines that have been shut down as opposed to not being allowed to be built or replaced by Biden and while OPEC increasing production would help lower the price of oil I believe the US is a net exporter of oil. Can anybody tell me if I am wrong?
GOP gerrymandering will certainly be a concern
in states with GOP-controlled legislatures, usually
swing-states at best, which control Congressional
districts. Trouble for 2022, more trouble for 2024.
Hmmm. State legislatures control the boundaries
of state election districts, which permits them to
have much say in how elections in those districts
will choose their state & federal representatives.
Doesn’t necessarily have much effect on state-wide elections.
Unless, say – as in Wisconsin apparently – the state legislature
intends to take control of how election results turn out in their state.
This implies that centrist (aka ‘right-wing’) Dems,
or perhaps more than that, centrist independents
are displeased with Biden’s perceived leftish
Centrists being the largest political bloc in
the US, this not good news for next year and 2024.
Or, are just supposed to believe that the dithering of
the Dems is enough to compel voters to vote with the GOP?
(I became a registered Dem in support of Joe Biden,
and I intend to stick with him no matter what.
It’s quite impossible to believe that ‘things are so bad’
that all good men should come to the aid of the GOP’.)
I put it in the post, but I emphasize that the whole gasoline price story should really be changing soon, although for the moment the media is still ranting about spiking. But crude prices have been drifting downwards for weeks, and it looks like gasoline prices simply stopped rising a couple of weeks ago, and have even been declining a bit in some places. But the media message has not remotely caught on to his so far.
Maybe many people think Biden is seriously impaired and that upsets them to the point that coolly assessing the results of his administration won’t give the kind of political credit the Democratic Party thought was due. If he really is impaired, it’s bad, bad for Democrats. Lived through it with an older relative and to my eyes, he’s not okay. I could be wrong, but I’m shocked he is doing so little to convince me otherwise. If he actually is okay, he should get a lot more active in demonstrating it. He, as a person, needs to create more confidence in his leadership.
Been busy getting new internet in a new state. I wanted to reassure you, I just got back on to approve your comment.
You should have reconsidered your approval. His comment is total and absolute nonsense and dose not deserve the light of day outside of Fox News.
Hiding away in an echo chamber would not be a good look for Angry Bear.
Then make him actually post some facts that support his take.
in every place I visit I see similar. I find it difficult to close AB off to those who only agree with us. Even if he is totally wrong.
Biden Declared ‘Healthy’ and ‘Vigorous’ After His First Presidential Physical
There is nothing Biden could do in addition to what has been accomplished to convince yourself and others he is more competent than the orange haired one. Three major bills passed sine his election and allowed to passed due to a Democratic majority in both legislative branches. Otherwise we might have had McConnell again pronounce he would work to make Biden a one term president. Then too, Biden is not a Black man and neither does McConnell have control of the Senate. Repub Senators are still under the little weasels thumb.
Without Biden as president and the Dems in control of the legislature, it would be another 2008 where limited economic and financial stimulus or support would have been applied to Main Street. Much of the current inflation is being fed by limited and lead time restrained supply chains. The semiconductor issues are a rerun of 2008/9. I lived it.
So Biden stutters, so what. It does not take from his leadership abilities as we are better off today during a pandemic than we were in the aftermath of 2008 as caused by a Congress which blocked the needed help for Main Street which wall Street and its renegade business leaders received with little punishment.
comfort yourself with this thought: the President has lots of helpers who are not impaired. That’s more than you can say for Trump. or Bush2.
The President does not need to be a genius. Though getting a Lincoln or FDR from time to time helps save the U.S. from its persistent drift into idoiocy.
Don’t know what your older relative was up against. I don’t watch Biden obsessively for symptoms of being “impaired”, but I can’t say I have noticed anything that alarms me. But if I was an avid viewer of Fox News I am sure I could be convinced that every half-stutter or memory lapse was proof he was a blithering idiot held upright in his saddle by pulleys and strings worked by the commie socialist jihadists who have stolen America.
On the other hand, did you notice that 80 million Americans voted for Trump after watching him for four years. I see a lot of them walking around in daylight, armed and dangerous. Be careful out there.
only fair that i should leave evidence of being impaired myself. idiocy. odiocy?
You earned that extra “o.”
Today I will feed our wild birds for the first time this season. Yesterday I took an 11.5 pound frozen turkey breast from the freezer and put it into an insulated bag in the refrigerator to slowly thaw. The circle of life continues.
An electrician is coming by Monday afternoon to swap my new wall oven now sitting in a crate in the living room for the one that has a burnt out lower element and no replacement part available. So, built in obsolescence arrived just in time for the holiday season. At this time of year then I must wonder whether having separation of church and state is worth not having separation of profits and state? IOW, was the trade of prophets for profits all that it was touted to be?
re extra “o’s”
Ron, you may not see the point of the story I am about to tell…too long to tell and too personal, but you are the only one here with a chance of understanding the deeper meaning.
I had a math teacher when I first went to college. very handsome man with snow white hair though he was quite young..about 40. He would be explaining something at the blackboard and suddenly stop. silent for a moment, then continue. I drew a cartoon of him showing holes in his head..inside his head…looking like little o’s.
He was also a very kind man. One day we were talking casually and he mentioned that he had been on the beach D-Day disarming land mines. Said, “that’ll turn your hair white.”
I learned something then. Not enough yet, but a start. I have not earned my extra “o’s” nearly so honorably.
Understood and agreed, but it is honorable of you to say so.
In the 2020 popular vote, Biden received 81.2 million votes and Trump received 74.2 million votes.
would you feel better if I said Trump received 74.2 million votes?
After all precision counts.
Sure glad to know there are only 74.2 million of them walking around in daylight armed and dangerous. But actually, I think there were 5.8 million more of them who voted for Biden by accident on accounta errors in perspective.
Oh, my. only 74.2 million? Well, I guess we don’t need to worry then.
you sure it was 74.2? what if it was only 74.193?
Trump claimed that he had received more votes than any
GOPresident ever received before him (which may
be true!), and therefore, if you invalidated all the
‘no doubt illegal’ votes which were in the Dem pile,
he must have won, because 70 million should be enuf.
It seems that was the big lie you were repeating.
(Trumps claim resembles Bush Jr’s assertion that
he must have won in 2000 – before the Supreme
Court made the final call – because his brother Jeb
promised him that the Florida vote would go his way.)
Biden Declared ‘Healthy’ and ‘Vigorous’ After His First Presidential Physical
30% of Americans say they personally own (at least?) one gun
40% of US voters are GOP or leaning that way
(So, only 12% of US voters are armed & ready to defend democracy. Nothing to worry about there.)
‘40% GOP or leaning that way’ is said to be an historical low, after the January 6 Insurrection.
However, only 9.8% of Dems (49% times 20%) are ‘armed’.
So, whatever comes next, the GOP has a 22% advantage!
Err, it’s much worse than that. 17.6% of voters are armed and GOP or GOP-leaning.
(44% times 40% equals 17.6%) Go ahead, be worried.
It’s likely that only 44% of Trump’s voters were armed, apparently.
So that brings the ‘worrisome’ number down to just 32.65 million.
As for the ‘5.8 million more of them who voted for Biden by accident’,
I am pretty sure that 8.5 million GOP voters chose Trump by mistake.
Have you been watching a lot of Sean Hannity? Almost every night he pulls together cherry picked pieces of Biden stuttering, which he has done all his life, and declares Biden barely able to speak or even get out of bed in the morning. Anyone watching Hannity at all regularly and taking him seriously would agree with you.
But otherwise, while he limits the number of activities he does each day most of the time, although not when he went abroad on his most recent major trip, he looks pretty good to me. I have watched him give full speeches just fine, or with only a minor stutter. He did go abroad and was at the G20 and Glasgow summits, making peace with Macron, encouraging a deal at Glasgow that happened, and not offending any world leaders. His phone summit with Xi Jinping seems to have gone well.
Just what behavior have you seen that makes you think he is “seriously impaired”? Heck, he is even getting his major bills through Congress. I disagree with some things he has done, but all this Hannity stuff about him being impaired looks to me like a bunch of phony propaganda.
His comments on many, many subjects are like this. He is deeply disturbed, yet tries to sound like he is normal. As far as I can recall, he has never substantiated any of the things he claims. Just like Hannity.
you ought to be careful who you call a liar:
Lone Ranger: “Tonto, There’s a hundred Indians surrounding us!”
Tonto: “No, Kemo Sabe. You lie; there is only 94.2.”
Lone Ranger: “Oh. That’s okay then. We don’t need to worry.”
Y’know, I am pretty sure these fictional characters never actually had such a conversation. So, it’s only a Trumpy sort of ’embellishment’.
well, i think i can see why people have so much trouble unerstanding what I say.
Tell me, when you were in kindergarten or first grade or just reading Easy books before you went to school, did they show you a picture of a child with the caption “little” and a grownup with the caption “big”? and did you then take a micrometer and measure the pictures and announce that the grownup was 3.762 mm bigger than the child and the author of the book must be a Trumpian liar…compunding the stupidity of false precision with a total lack of logic?
And yes, the Lone Ranger and Tonto were fictional characters before I told my utterly fictional story illustrating at least the false precision part. Total illogic would have required a post-Trumpian narrative.
So, you might say I got my extra 5.8 million by counting the people who voted for Biden while teetering on the edge of total confusion about what it (everything) was all about.
The Social Security “journalists” were going around a few years back saying “it’s just the math.” Any “math they did (none..they got their words from “non partisan experts”) would have looked a lot like yours. a bunch of numbers thrown up and added and subtracted to no purpose or perceivable logic.
Hi O Silver!
Tonto went on to say…
Tonto: “If you need me, Kemo Sabe, I’ll be over there catching up with my bro’s.’
hard to tell if you are just catching up on an old joke, or if you are implying that Tonto (in my story) is really on the side of the Indians, which in this case, would be the Trumpists, or at least “you.” that is, if logic means anything.
What do you mean ‘We’, Kemo Sabe?
(Of course I was thinking of this ‘old joke’.)
(I doubt if ‘logic’ has much to do with our discussion here.
We had the election, Trump got more votes than any
other GOP nominee in history, in raw numbers but
not in percentage, and lost by a large margin to Biden.
Why is this still of any proper concern to anyone?
Now, there should be much concern about Trump
attempting to nullify the 2020 result, agreed?)
BTW, what you said, back at the beginning of this thread
was that Trump got 80 million votes. If he had, he would
have won. That number is somewhat less than Biden’s
actual total, but the additional Trump votes you came
up with would have eliminated Biden’s victory margin.
So, it appears that you are simply trying to redefine
the results of Election Day, 2020, and suggest that
the real winner was Donald J. Trump. Big Lie Nonsense!
you have apparently never heard of significant digits or “rounding,” much less “rounding up.” These are ways scientists and artillery officers protect themselves from false precision and creeping up on the target.
apparently you are so committed to the idea that I was perpetuating the lie that Trump won, that you cannot see that I was saying there are an awful lot of people out there who voted for Trump after seeing what he was like for four years. If it doesn’t bother you that almost half of the people you meet on the street think it is okay to beat you up or kill you if they think you disagree with them, well, I guess it doesn’t bother me all that much either…that they beat you up. Me, I’m worried.
Actually, I am more worried about you than I am about them.
I am fortunate to live in a state where
(with rounding) 66% voted for Biden
and 32% for Trump. What worries me
is the list of states Mrs Fred & I can visit
comfortably grows ever shorter by the week.
We need for you, as a so-called ‘expert’,
to stop suggesting that Trump got 80 million
votes last November (or should have) because
some 5 million people who meant to vote for
Trump were too confused to do so,
or any other such nonsense.
(Experts don’t make shit up.)
it’s like talking to a broken computer. you keep insisting i said someting i did not say. i assume that is because in your life you have never seen anyone round a number up. i assure you it is a common, and indeed, correct way to treat numbers when that is the right thing to do.
i am not an expert in anything. once in a while i stumble upon something that turns out to be true when i check the arithmetic.
if you were planning to go to Kenya in the 1950’s and they told you only 32% of the population were mau maus, would you feel comfortable?
i wonder if you were not one of those confused voters I mentioned. you argue like they do. not only wrong but completely missing the point, shutting your ears and insisting over and over that the other person is not only but criminally so. i never said or implied that Trump won. I just said there are 80 million people running around this country thinking it is all right to kill people whose politics you don’t like. If you think there are “only” 74.2 million of them and that’s okay, be my guest and bless your heart.
You wrote: ‘On the other hand, did you notice that 80 million Americans voted for Trump after watching him for four years. I see a lot of them walking around in daylight…’
(They did not.)
How many of those 80 million have you actually seen wandering around?
(Like on your lawn, maybe?)
If it were true, what do you suppose the obvious remedy is?
The problem is that the average IQ is stuck at 100, and there’s nothing anyone can do about that.
‘i am not an expert in anything. once in a while i stumble upon something that turns out to be true when i check the arithmetic.’
OTOH, since you are NOT an expert, fell free to ‘make shit up’.
There are not 80 million people wandering around this country waiting to shoot anybody.
There are not 80 million people willing to vote for Trump.
If there were, he would have won. He did not.
Lets try hard to keep it that way.