Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September

by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Newsletter NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to September 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in […]

Biden administration’s recovery package got back these jobs in less than a year and a half

I very much agree with these findings. With Trump, the nation and labor would have floundered. WE are lucky he had the wherewithal to act quickly with the right stimulus to support job growth. Two months after Dean’s post the nation is still going strong. Christmas maybe good for many. U.S. Workers are Far Better […]

Healthcare Insurance Benefits In 2024: Higher Premiums Persist

This is just a partial of a much longer commentary by Health Affairs on Employer healthcare insurance for single employees am employees with families. “Health Benefits In 2024: Higher Premiums Persist, Employer Strategies for GLP-1 Coverage and Family-Building Benefits,” Health Affairs. I have used two of the charts to emphasis what is occurring. The first […]

Real aggregate payrolls and inflation preview for September

Real aggregate payrolls and inflation preview for September  – by New Deal democrat Tomorrow consumer prices for September will be reported. It’s almost certain that the best short term forecasting tool from the employment report, real aggregate payrolls, will increase once again. Let’s take a more detailed look. Post-pandemic, nominally aggregate payrolls have increased relentlessly. […]

Wason Poll: Harris Leads Trump by 11 points Among Virginia’s Likely Voters

Wason Oct 7 Survey 24 New Wason Poll: Harris Leads Trump by 11 points Among Virginia Likely Voters – Christopher Newport University (cnu.edu) NEWPORT NEWS, VA — The Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University today released its first statewide survey for the elections on November 5th. The survey indicates, Democrat Kamala Harris […]

In-depth look at the leading indicators from the employment report

– by New Deal democrat First things first: there’s almost no significant economic news at all this week until Thursday, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky for a day or two. The coincident headline news out of last Friday’s employment report was very positive, so most all observers heaved a sigh of relief. Of […]

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Insurance Costs “Spike”, Especially in Florida

Former Bear Bill McBride at Calculated Risk is sharing another of his excellent commentaries. This time his focus is on rising homeowner insurance costs. Timely for sure. Helene has gone through the southern states and another hurricane is coming. Insurance costs were up then and will more-than-likely increase again for states bordering the Atlantic. I […]

Real Gross Product is Increasing – Third Estimate

Taken from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Second Quarter 2024 and Annual Update Partial Report: Real gross domestic product (GDP) is increasing at an annual rate of 3.0 percent as shown in the second quarter of 2024 (table 1). This is according to […]

New Deal democrats “Weekly Indicators” for September 30 – October 4

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There was a slight fading of several indicators in the short leading and coincident sphere, but overall the positive and improving trend continues. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the state of the […]

Autocracy will bring poverty

From Prof. Timothy Snyder’s substack “Thinking about…” Shared with permission: “Think about the politicians Trump idolizes, Vladimir Putin in Russia and Viktor Orbán in Hungary. The first undid a democracy through fake emergencies, the second through persistent constitutional abuse. It is not hard to see why Trump likes them. “Now consider the Russian and Hungarian […]