Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

UPDATE: Real median household income for <sigh> 2023

 – by New Deal democrat I’m a little late to this, since FRED took its time updating, but the annual report of median household income for the US was released on Tuesday for 2023.  This is an important statistic about the well-being of, well, the median American household, so one of my pet peeves is […]

Initial claims still positive, moving into very challenging YoY comparisons (plus a note about the PPI)

– by New Deal democrat If residual post-pandemic seasonality has been affecting jobless claims statistics, the real acid test is going to begin next week, as for the next 7+ months, any number higher than 220,000 is almost always going to be higher than one year ago. In the meantime, for this our last week of […]

One Would Think Low-Cost Stores Would Know How to Adapt During Poor Economic Times . . .

Apparently, the larger WalMarts, Target, etc. know how to do so. The lower cost rivals(?) which should have greater appeal to its targeted customers are struggling. ~~~~~~~ Dollar General and Dollar Tree need a ‘new playbook‘ to compete . . . In the world of retail, Walmart, Target, and Costco continue to thrive with their blend of quality […]

The Fed and the Press Should Stop Inflating Inflation Expectations

by Steve Roth Originally Posted at Wealth Economics (June 2023) Recent headline inflation prints are below the Fed’s target, and falling. That news is a powerful tool for controlling expectations, but the Fed’s not using it. 1.5%. That’s the latest headline inflation rate in the U.S. per the May CPI release, and also according to […]

August CPI: further important progress towards 2% YoY level, marred (only) by a surprise uptick in shelter

– by New Deal democrat August CPI, with the conspicuous exception of shelter, continued to come in tame. And the list of other “problem children” decreased by 1, as only food away from home (restaurants) and transportation services (motor vehicle insurance and repairs) remain. Let’s get the headlines out of the way:  – Headline CPI continued increased […]

what happened to advocacy of a 4% inflation target ?

and of a 3% inflation target? There is some risk of recession in the USA because the FED insists on driving inflation down to 2%.  Oddly back in the naughts when inflation was persistently below the 2% target, there was more discussion of raising the target. Then IMF chief economist discussed it. Paul Krugman advocated […]

AZ – Best Build to Rent Single Family Housing Market

This is a brief introduction to the housing state of affairs in Arizona. It is building up quickly. Builders, declarants, and corporate HOAs have a great swath of control over what is occurring. None of which has controlling input from residents. What I am also seeing in the Planning and Zoning Commissions is ignorance on […]

Colorado crop fraud

Farming is a risky business. Always has been. A federal program to keep farmers in business during droughts seems like a good idea to me. Sadly, it’s also a target for fraud: “On a normal day, the promising storms produced snow or rain that would fall onto a system of official weather stations at airstrips […]

Leading Indicators from Friday’s jobs report

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic news today or tomorrow, so let’s take a more detailed look at the leading indicators from Friday’s jobs report. It turns out, the news wasn’t nearly as bad as the headline employment number. Let’s start with the negative stuff. The simple story is, manufacturing is in a […]