Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The real nowcast for the economy as of the end of Q3

– by New Deal democrat On Friday I highlighted the sharp positive revision to the personal saving rate.  That was a byproduct of a similar sharply higher revision to real personal income over the past two years. Here is what those revisions, to real personal disposable income, look like: Instead of being up 6.8% since […]

FTC Taking Action Against Rental Property Companies for Deceiving Home, etc. Renters

I did not know this. In Phoenix, etc. The subject of this commentary, “Invitation Homes” has approximately 7300 available homes for rent at prices which would equal a mortgage payment, property taxes, and the required homeowner’s insurance. I am sitting in the middle of all of this in AZ. The only reason I can think […]

John Deere Maintains Profits and Shareholder Value by Whacking Labor

Nothing new under the sun here. Maintaining profits has been a matter of fact for decades. It became more popular under Pres. Reagan. Deere Reports Strong Profits Amid Layoffs of Workers Across Iowa, Des Moines Register August 13, 2024 and Kevin Baskins at the Des Moines Register reports on the Deere & Company layoffs across […]

EV fueling ports vs gas station nozzles

Kevin Drum has a post up about the present and future of EV charging stalls in the US. As of 2023, the number was 184,000, with public charging stalls outnumbering Tesla stalls 6:1. Is that a lot or a little? Well, lots of people say that they’re holding off buying EVs because of the range, […]

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Ticked Up in August

by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Single-family serious delinquencies increased slightly in August, and multi-family serious delinquencies decreased slightly. Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in August was 0.52%, up from 0.51% June. Freddie’s rate is down year-over-year from 0.55% in August 2023.  This is below the pre-pandemic lows. Freddie’s serious delinquency rate peaked in February […]

Abbreviated Report on Income in the US for 2023

I only provided a portion of the report and the 6 figures (one through six). The full report on Income can be found here: Income in the United States: 2023, Gloria Guzman and Melissa Kollar. The economy was not as bad as the politicians and trump make it out to be, The numbers do not […]

Personal income and spending hits a triple, plus a big positive surprise revision

-by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is now the most important report of all, except for jobs. That’s becuase it tells us so much about the state of the consumer economy. It is the raw material for several important coincident indicators that the NBER looks at, as well as several […]

Job continuity in America

I recently retired after working for the same employer for 37 years. My dad also worked ca. 35 years for his employer before retiring, as did my father-in-law. My sister worked for her employer for 40 years. Two of my sisters-in-law worked for their only employer for about that long. My daughter, on the other […]

Weekly jobless claims: good news and ‘meh’ news

– by New Deal democrat I’ve been writing for the past number of weeks that we were approaching the acid test for the hypothesis that unresolved post-pandemic seasonality explained the sharp increase in jobless claims in the summer. This week we are fully immersed in the 6+ month comparison period where initial claims in the […]