Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

July personal income and spending: an excellent report, with only one fly in the ointment

 – by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is now the most important report of all, except for jobs. That’s becuase it tells us so much about the state of the consumer economy. It is the raw material for several important coincident indicators that the NBER looks at, as well as several […]

Jobless claims: almost all good

 – by New Deal democrat The news about initial and continuing jobless claims was almost all good this week. Initial claims declined -2,000 to 231,000, and the four-week moving average declined -4,750 to 231,500, the lowest since early June. Continuing claims increased by 13,000 to 1.868 million: As usual, more important for forecasting purposes are […]

Trump and the Economy

As usual Trump is bleating about the upcoming election and how he will be cheated through fraudulent actions if he loses. Another point being made in this commentary is the pricing of goods which went up 14% while corporate profits when up five times as much. A Kroger Director admits such for some food products. […]

Catching Up on Climate Risk Research

Two excellent short and very readable mini articles (to be redundant). Both pieces are pointing to a direction the Fed should take in the next year or sooner with regard to Climate Change. It is doubtful they will do so until catastrophe hits. What is a few $billion more in spending, right??? This aspect of […]

How will the Trump and Harris budgets affect the national debt?

Here’s the Penn Wharton Budget Model breakdown for how much each candidate’s economic proposals will affect the national debt: “We estimate that the Trump Campaign tax and spending proposals would increase primary deficits by $5.8 trillion over the next 10 years on a conventional basis and by $4.1 trillion on a dynamic basis that includes […]

Mortgage Lock-In is Coming to an End

QUARTZ The ‘Lock-in Effect’ is Easing. Here is What It means for the Housing Market Homeowners are beginning to give up on waiting for lower mortgage rates. That could be good news for potential homebuyers. In the first quarter of this year, six of every seven homeowners, or 86%, have a mortgage rate below 6%, […]

Why people stay after local economies collapse

Why people stay after local economies collapse − a story of home among the ghosts of shuttered steel mills by Tracy Walsh The Conversation It was midday on a Saturday, and Simonetta led me from the open front door of her home in southeast Chicago to her sitting room and settled next to her husband, Christopher, […]

Repeat home sale indexes show continued deceleration in house price inflation

Repeat home sale indexes show continued deceleration in house price inflation, more comfort room for Fed to cut rates  – by New Deal democrat This morning, we got the repeat home sales price data from the FHFA and Case Shiller. And the news was good, especially in the slightly leading FHFA Index. This is of […]

Banning Price Gouging. What Do Economists Say? – WSJ

Americans hate high prices, and Kamala Harris says she plans to combat them by banning price gouging in food and groceries. But, depending on what form it takes, economists could hate her plan. Vice President Harris, who will formally accept her party’s nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this week, has laid the blame for high food […]

FTC is Interfering with Kroger and Albertson’s Consolidation

Yes, it is true. That is only part of the story. There is more to it as to why the FTC is interfering. I am surprised there is not more “current” information on Cerberus and Apollo Global involvement in the Kroger-Albertsons merger. I keep reading the same blathering over and over. $25 billion at play […]