– by New Deal democrat The effects of Hurricane Beryl had just enough of an effect on home building in July to cause me not to hoist a yellow recession caution flag in this important leading sector. While the hurricane had no significant effect on permits, it likely did have an effect on starts and […]

by Lloyd Alter Carbon Upfront! The economist John Maynard Keynes purportedly said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” I am considering changing my mind about 3D printed houses. I wrote eight years ago: “I am not a total skeptic about 3D-printed houses. I think there is a place for them—on the […]

 – by New Deal democrat In the past, industrial production has been the King of Coincident Indicators, since its peaks and troughs tended to coincide almost exactly with the onset and endings of recessions. That weighting has faded somewhat since the accession of China to the world trading system in 1999 an the wholesale flight […]

 – by New Deal democrat The second point of economic data released this morning, retail sales, were also positive. On a nominal basis, retail sales in July rose 1.0%. After adjusting for inflation, they rose 0.8% to the highest level so far this year. The below graph norms both real retail sales (dark blue) and […]

 – by New Deal democrat Last week I pointed out that the YoY increases in initial and continuing jobless claims appeared to be all about Texas in the wake of Beryl. This week there was good news even with some continued hurricane Beryl effects in Texas. Initial claims declined -7,000 to 227,000 for the week, […]

Apparently, JD Vance thinks so.* Not to go all anecdotal here, but in 1981, I bought my first car, a brand-new Mazda GLC hatchback, for $5770. In 2024 dollars, that’s $20,000. It had no radio, no air conditioning and no passenger-side sun visor. I recently bought a 2013 Honda Fit four-door for $15,000, and it […]

by Heather Cox Richardson Letters from an American AB: More dialogue on the less than 3% increase in inflation. The July report for consumer prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which came out today, showed that prices rose less than 3% in the previous twelve months. Core inflation has fallen to its lowest rate […]

Workers are getting $3/hour. Usually, we tip well beyond 20% of the bill. Maybe it is just because we struggled at times. Some of AZ’s legislators should be working for $3/hour and getting tips if they do a good job in the legislature. It does not appear they are representing people. The last go around […]

Consumer Price Index – July 2024 (bls.gov) The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, after declining 0.1 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the All items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index […]

– by New Deal democrat The CPI for July continued all of the trends I have been writing about for the past year or more:  – Headline and core CPI continue to slowly decelerate.   – energy inflation is non-existent  – shelter inflation remains very elevated but continues to declerate, following house prices.  – all prices […]