– by New Deal democrat My focus continues to be on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether there is further decline towards a recession. For a change, this month the Establishment report was the weakest in several years, if still positive. Meanwhile the Household report rebounded […]
CNBC The plight of hotel workers in cleaning up after residents who stay for a few days and leave the room in a wreck. The pay id the minimum that can be made. The hazards are such a worker can become readily sick. from exposure. I am sure the pandemic caused issues. Plus, people do […]
– by New Deal democrat Recently I have paid much more attention to the ISM services index. That’s because, since the turn of the Millennium, manufacturing’s share of the economy has contracted to the point where even a significant decline in that index has not translated into an economy-wide recession, as for example in 2015-16. When […]
The Phillips curve plays a central role in the policy debate (this is partly due to the fact that debaters have finally learned to ignore very highly theoretical and unrealistic DSGE models). Just to review, the Phillips curve should show a negative relationship between unemployment and actual inflation minus expected inflation (it has been defined this way since […]
A soft landing (disinflation without a recession) looks possible. Also the remaining threat is the FED’s sticking with high interest rates, even though inflation is at a very reasonable level (I personally publicly argued that the inflation target should be 4%) and will almost certainly decline even if unemployment remains low. The change can be […]
– by New Deal democrat The weekly news from jobless claims continues to be good. The hypotheses that the summer increase was unresolved post-pandemic seasonality, plus the several week spike post-Beryl was all about Texas, both have held up very well. And that has continued to be the case against more challenging YoY comparisons as the […]
Devastating Impact of Proposed Kroger/Albertsons Merger on Good Union Jobs Scrutinized in Day 3 of Merger Hearing, Economic Liberties Portland, OR — After the third day of the Federal Trade Commission v. Kroger-Albertsons hearing in the U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon, the American Economic Liberties Project released the following summary. As posted by Research […]
Since the beginning of the Covid epidemic, the US economy has performed better than European economies and the Eurozone average. This comparison is useful, and not just for boasting rights. Fiscal policy in the USA and in the Eurozone has been dramatically different – The US Federal Government implemented Six very large fiscal stimuli: The […]
– by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in the jobs report. In July, it painted a picture of what looks like pretty relentless deterioration. The theme for three of the four data series I track was the same: job […]
Trump is promising mass deportations if he’s elected. He claims this will create jobs and economic growth. We’ve been here before. “In the 1930s, state and local governments deported 400,000 to 500,000 people of Mexican descent, promising to create jobs for Americans during the Great Depression. What actually happened? The employment of native-born Americans dropped […]