– by New Deal democrat One of the well-established long leading indicators is corporate profits. Typically they peak a year or more before the onset of a recession. And the reason makes sense: if there is profit pressure that lasts longer than a single quarter, i.e., it looks like it may be forming a trend, […]
– by New Deal democrat This week is another light one for economic data, so let me discuss a couple of points explaining why I am cautious, but not DOOOMing. Basically, because there are a lot of asterisks. Today let me follow up on initial jobless claims. The typical best way to look at these is […]
– by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Newsletter NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to September 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. As per the analysis of monthly data that I wrote about this week, hurricane season continued to complicate the high frequency data as well. With that very big caveat, the underlying tone remained positive. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring […]
I’ve been to California a few times, for scientific meetings, for vacation and once for a friend’s wedding. I’ve had a good experience each time. It has always struck me as an expensive place to live, though, and I’m definitely not a beach person. Elon Musk is warning us that the nation will become “Californicated” […]
Kind of have to jump around on this one. Both commentaries by Kareem are good. I just happen to like the Nationalism one better. Christian Nationalism is Here & People Can Now Communicate in Dreams (Really!) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar US elections 2024, The Guardian SUMMARY: Kamala Harris’s economic policies proved far more popular than Donald Trump’s […]
Housing is expensive here in East Providence. It’s even more expensive in Boston, an hour from here. Some folks live in Rhode Island and commute to Boston. When we were house-hunting in the Providence area in the Spring of ’22, the real estate market was white hot. We were out-bid on three offers. Making an […]
– by Sara B. Heller and Max Kapustin Econofact, November 2022 Let me be clear on the topic before you read the article. The full text is: “In a research paper with colleagues, we find that it is possible by using data such as arrest and victimization records that cities already collect, to accurately identify specific […]
– by New Deal democrat Much of the data that is being released, like yesterday’s jobless claims data, has to be viewed with an asterisk after it, because of hurricane disruptions. As an addendum to yesterday’s industrial production report, I failed to mention that the BEA that “the effects of two hurricanes subtracted an estimated 0.3 […]
– by New Deal democrat A periodic reminder, real retail sales is one of my favorite economic indicators, because it tells us so much about the state of the consumer, and since consumption leads employment, it is a short leading indicator for that as well. In September retail sales in August rose 0.4% on a […]