Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Polling Margins: The Myth of "Double-Digits"

There is a strange meme in the blogsphere—most recently made in comments here by Movie Guy—that Obama “should have a double-digit lead over McCain at this stage as has been the case with previous presidential primaries.” So I went searching for double-digit leads among two-person Presidential races in the past several elections. August 2004 (Bush […]

Andrew Samwick ponders The Ancestral Party

“On days like this, I wonder if I’m still a Republican.“ I gave up on the Party long ago; I gave up hope when a (very) distant relative wrote an op-ed for the NYT on why he would not support impeachment in 1998, and was attacked by the party for the next few years, before […]

It’s All About the Governors

Roger Ailes notes that Tim Kaine (D-VA) is the frontrunner for Dem VP, while KathyG (whose post on Cass Sunstein is a must-read) notes that Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) appears likely to be McCain’s choice, likely ensuring one ovation at the Minneapolis convention. Hmm. The man who presides over his state being described as “the state […]

Trying to Short Joe Biden

So the good news yesterday (h/t Felix) is that, even as he was voting to eviscerate the Fourth Amendment, Barack Obama urged a change to bankruptcy law. The devil is in the details (the “median cost” of a home in NY State won’t keep anyone living in their house in Westchester or even Rockland County, […]

One in 300, or the Only one in Government?

UPDATE: Brad DeLong lists some of the Usual Suspects who are Not in the Line-up. John McCain’s 300 economists who support his Jobs for America Plan (via Tyler Cowen, non-sociopath, who provides an appropriate context for the list) includes one person, an Ike Brannon, whose affiliation is listed as “Department of the Treasury” and who, […]

Not Painless, or "There’s no way I could tell you/What he meant to me"

UPDATE: NYT Obituary here. Some book cover images added. Two years ago at Readercon, I found myself doing some hero-worship in the Green Room. Friday, we had discovered that my piece on Jorge Luis Borges was the first of the appreciations of that year’s Memorial Guest of Honor. (I assume this was because of its […]

Dave Johnson at Seeing the Forest Gives the Lie to the "Hillary is destroying the party" meme

He’s more of an optimist than I am—but that isn’t difficult. Then again, he is also well aware that, were Hillary to drop out today, it wouldn’t be all peaches and cream from now until after the nominations are in place. People are saying that Hillary is “race-baiting” because she mentioned “blue-collar whites.” Save the […]