Financial markets in past fiscal crises; the “gold standard” of employment reports . . . big deceleration in Q4 of last year
Financial markets in past fiscal crises; the “gold standard” of employment reports shows big deceleration in Q4 of last year
– by New Deal democrat
I have a post up at Seeking Alpha on how stocks, bonds, and consumers behaved during the 3 fiscal crises of the last decade. Hint: recessions are always disinflationary.
Also of interest: the “gold standard” of employment data is the Quarterly County Employment and Wages report, which is not a sample, but the full census of 95% of all establishments. Unfortunately, it has two drawbacks: (1) it does not get reported until almost 6 months later, and (2) it can be revised for a full year or more afterward.
With those caveats, YoY employment through December of last year decelerated from 4.3% at the end of Q3 to +2.6%, and a total of 152,318,000 jobs:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI2MlvQ8vAeiOFqJLfMCYJTZ-c0fSvnBRvghNaeBV-_mfXh7YMcpM8PVNE8iXS0qGBs-9cQsT9r4MVqm9xUbGQwwa-VpKTE8q5DC4ezIyiR5NKGgCzaCgiwcnaX4PTk3froHkL4wRsSBKWS2pFPmD_jA_gjidINifQ4Y_DPtJzBRFrTswMnS8e-wqscA/w400-h208/8B5B5309-129B-4A96-B873-DA4E5D2C1EF0.jpeg)
This compares with the monthly jobs report which was up +3.2% YoY (red, left scale) at 154,535,000 jobs (blue, right scale):
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNZsE_g9QC7_T4wDMkkiCi0uC2ZknkYNqKIv3PmcK45UKYh4UhvDlgsyPVtJSB8IM3fS_1JkKG3u030Ujkn2kqTV3VwrlEV1BhzN9a5RKzg4YnYocGkRfEua-o9vYw9ytU_-f67OMv41Ue2KBOaHtbuDzc-uao-LTRPMEL134b83aUvnzSZUp-qCt_QA/w400-h175/3FFE4AEF-A43C-4ABF-8158-5121FE2D3862.jpeg)
We had a similar disconnect for Q2 data, which subsequently got revised away.
Jobless claims hoist yellow flag again; employment and unemployment likely to show further deceleration tomorrow, Angry Bear, New Deal democrat