It is agreed that freedom of speech does not imply freedom to make whatever performative utterance one chooses. It just isn’t agreed what “performative” means. Some (of whom you are the first I ever heard do so ever in my life) use it in this sense. The usage condemnation is performative when, for example a […]

Initial jobless claims: unresolved seasonality obscures cautionary YoY comparisons  – by New Deal democrat For the last few weeks, I have been highlighting that there is likely some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in the initial claims numbers. That certainly looked like the case this week, as a sharp decline mirrored a similar sharp decline 52 weeks […]

Siri: “Hey Jill, how are you? Anything you would like to talk about?” Jill: “I fell while hiking today.” Siri: “Were you hurt?” Jill: “Left ankle is somewhat swollen and sore from jamming the foot into a rock while trying to stay upright.” Siri: “Sorry to hear that, Jill. Any idea why you fell?” Jill: […]

Using the stock market and unemployment as an easy and timely coincident recession indicator  – by New Deal democrat My fellow forecaster Bob Dieli has a measure he calls “DeltaDelta,” basically an average of the YoY% change in the stock market and the unemployment rate (which hopefully he won’t mind me mentioning here). It called to mind […]

There has been much laughter over the fact that Donald Trump has repeatedly given the impression that he thinks that stealth technology works at the wavelength of visible light, so stealthy aircraft are invisible. He isn’t the only one who is saying silly things based on ignoring wavelength. The technology used by the F117, F22, […]

A few years back, my chairman was a big enthusiast of NFTs (nonfungible tokens). In one conversation I recall, I pointed to a picture of the founding chair of the department and suggested he could digitize it and sell it to alumni as an NFT. He said he thought that was a good idea. When […]

Timothy Snyder is the Richard C. Levin Professor of History at Yale University, a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna and an expert on Russian and Eastern European history. Yesterday, he narrated an essay on his subscription-only Substack site “Thinking about . . . “ on the occasion of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s […]

This is the second part of the ABC 6 On Your Side web series on hidden reasons for high drug costs, we’ll show you why you may never see that aid. If you had time, you may have read Part One. It covered how Ohio HB 135 lingered till it died by not taking the […]

People tend to say things are bad and getting worse. They tend to get irritated when I note that the thing they mentioned is bad but has recently become less bad. There is some deep unwillingness to accept that levels, changes, and rates of change are different. Certainly people will argue that something is too […]

The long awaited downturn in multi-family construction may finally have happened  – by New Deal democrat With the relative fading of manufacturing in importance to the US economy, the leading construction sector has assumed even greater importance. And the most important data about construction are the leading, and long leading, data about residential housing construction. […]