Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

A respite in manufacturing in August, continued decline in construction in July

A respite in manufacturing in August, continued decline in construction in July As usual, the new month’s first data is for manufacturing and construction. Here’s a look at each. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. In August, after two months of […]

June house price indexes show no peak yet; no respite likely in the “official” consumer housing measure

June house price indexes show no peak yet; no respite likely in the “official” consumer housing measure Yesterday the Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes were updated through June (technically, the average of April through June. Because the Case Shiller index is not seasonally adjusted, the best way to show them is YoY. Here […]

July JOLTS report: the broad deceleration in the game of reverse musical chairs (generally) continues

July JOLTS report: the broad deceleration in the game of reverse musical chairs (generally) continues I have been writing since early this year that, because of the pandemic, there have been several million fewer persons looking for work, leaving a huge number of unfilled job vacancies, particularly in the face of a roughly 10% higher […]

Inflation

In chemistry, and in physics, a positive feedback loop usually yields an explosion. In biology, it is a population explosion. In electronics, it might be an unpleasant screech. In economics, both housing bubbles and inflation are products of a positive feedback loop. In re Global Warming: The melting of permafrost due to Global Warming releases […]

Continued good news for consumers on gas prices

Continued good news for consumers on gas prices There’ll be lots of economic news starting tomorrow, but for today let’s pause and take a look at the energy situation. Here’s a look at oil prices in the past year up through yesterday from CNBC: And here’s a look over the same time period from Gas […]

irs.gov

The republicans are indignant as hell that the Inflation Reduction Act, née Climate and Healthcare Bill, would increase funding for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Since Reagan, republicans had been defunding it for them that brought them; them being the very rich who don’t like paying taxes. After the 2010 cuts, it had gotten to […]

Marking Ezra Klein’s Beliefs to Market

A tweet sent me to this column Ezra Klein wrote long, long ago in a city far away. In the heady day of April 8 2021, Klein discussed Joseph Biden’s radicalism and contrasted it with Barack Obama’s caution. I remember. Biden had just signed the American Rescue plan and was proposing what would be called […]

Student Loans

America is the land of equal opportunity. Well, yeah, truth be, your odds are little bit better if your parents can afford to send you to a good university. Other that, it’s even stephen. What if those who weren’t born to means could borrow the money? That would almost be as good, no.? Before 1965, […]