Housing unaffordability closes in on bubble peaks; expect substantial price declines and increased foreclosures in the likely oncoming recession – by New Deal democrat I last looked at the issue of housing affordability at the beginning of April. As we all know, mortgage rates have continued to skyrocket in the past several months. At present […]
RJS, MarketWatch 666 ~~~~~~~ Summary: Retail Sales Fell 0.3% in May After March and April Sales Were Revised Lower Seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 0.3% in May after retail sales for April were revised 0.4% lower. The Advance Retail Sales Report for May (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated our seasonally adjusted retail and food services […]
Existing home sales: the freight train of price appreciation rolls on Although existing home sales are less economically important than new home sales, what has been happening with their prices, given the experience of the housing bubble and bust 15 years ago, is of added importance. The simple summary is that sales have declined substantially, […]
Jean-Paul loved Simone as he could never love anyone else; gave her his heart and, with some great effort, won hers. Simone, she wasn’t one to be particular. Both he and she were Existentialists. Albert, an Absurdist, and Jean-Paul were friends. Simone fell for Albert on first sight. Absurd or not; big minds attract. Absurd […]
RJS: Focus on Fracking ~~~~~~~ Summary: Global oil surplus at 560,000 barrels per day in May as OPEC output fell to 1.049 million bpd below quota ~~~~~~~ OPEC’s Report on Global Oil for May Tuesday of this week saw the release of OPEC’s June Oil Market Report, which includes details on OPEC & global oil data […]
Tariffs and Inflation Kevin Quinn, Econospeak Jason Furman and Janet Yellen have both suggested that cutting Trump’s tariffs would be anti-inflationary. But most economists agree that the incidence of the tariffs is for the most part on US consumers, not foreign suppliers (pace the treasonous and ignorant former president, who crowed about all the revenues we […]
Summary: US oil supplies at a 17½ year low. SPR at a 35 year low after the SPR largest withdrawal on record. Gasoline supplies at a 6-month low. ~~~~~~~~ The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending June 10th show that […]
Weekly Indicators for June 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. My paradigm is: first the long leading indicators turn. Then the short leading indicators turn. Then the coincident indicators turn. Finally the lagging indicators turn. For months I have been documenting the downturn […]
Positive production print points to continued economic expansion in May The usual suspects are out, claiming that a recession has either already started or is imminent. Well, the big reason I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators is because empirically is the one whose peaks and troughs coincide most definitively with NBER recession […]
An across the board downturn for housing permits and starts in May Housing permits and starts declined across the board in May. In the past year there has been a unique divergence between permits and starts due to construction supply shortages. This has been reflected in the number of housing units authorized but not started […]