What is Happiness?  Post your entries in the comments. Sandwichman WILL JUDGE THEM.

I have been waiting for an explanation on inflation like this to break loose from a credible source other than myself(?). If you have been around long enough, you kind of know what is going to take place once the Fed starts to increase Fed rates. You may have been around in the seventies when […]

Weekly Indicators for July 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The 10-2 year Treasury yield inverted again, with very little fanfare. And several other leading indicators deteriorated a little further as well. But as the jobs report showed, the nowcast is still positive. As usual, clicking over […]

(Dan here…lifted from comments) Barkley Rosser writes: There are two things Trump did that added to inflation that Biden has somehow not undone yet. One of them is reversing the Trump tariffs, which he clearly fears doing because of opposition by Organized Labor and many white working-class voters in the crucial Rust Belt states. Some […]

June jobs report: strong headline numbers, betraying numerous signs of rougher times Consumption leads employment. That’s true at bottoms, and it’s true at peaks as well. Since February, when consumption growth started to flag, I have been waiting for it to show up decisively in jobs numbers. In March through May, average growth decelerated from […]

White Rabbit  I have finished reading to my two younger grandsons the two Alice books by Lewis Carroll. I read the edition with commentary by the late mathematician, Martin Gardner, who used to write for Scientific American. I also just listened to Jefferson Airplane’s “White Rabbit,” which is pretty bloody sharp, but which draws on […]

Jobless claims continue to drift higher, are no longer a positive; but no recession signaled Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 to 235,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average also rose by 750 to 232,500, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 three months ago.  Continuing […]

May JOLTS report: a significant deceleration in the underlying jobs market has likely begun Late last year I introduced the idea that the jobs market was similar to a game of musical chairs, where employers added or took away chairs, and employees tried to best allocate themselves among the chairs.  Because of the pandemic, several […]

Vladimir Mau Has Been Arrested, Econospeak, Barkley Rosser  Vladimir who? I appreciate that most readers have never heard of this individual. But this is the sign of a major new shift in the situation in Russia. To make clear why this is important: until quite recently Vladimir Mau was the top economic advisor of V.V. […]

Compensating Wage Differentials according to Dilbert Econospeak, Peter Dorman