I have refused to forecast what two unpredictable leaders will do, and I shall continue that, other than to say I do not believe North Korea will denuclearize. Otherwise, well, the written deal was mostly aspirations while there seem to be disagreements about the verbal deals. DPRK says US has agreed to lift sanctions but US says no. As it is, at least it happened and there will be more talk, according to the paper agreement. As some famous person said (forget who), “Jaw jaw is better than war war.”
So, let me make people aware of a useful source, which has been putting out things either ahead of regular media or even in disagreement with it recently. This is North Korean Economy Watch at https://www.nkeconwatch.com . Here are some tidbits.
They were the first to report that Chinese-DPRK trade began increasing after Kim Jong-in met with Moon Jae-in at the DMZ. “Maximum pressure” has been over for some time already.
A further sign that max pressure off is that there were stable prices in DPRK in the month of May, no noticeable shortages.
A group that Kim Jong-in may be paying attention to is the elite in Pyongyang who now have higher incomes and access to western goods. They would like more. The rest of the population does not matter to him.
ROK companies are hot to get into DPRK.
ROK has a plan to engage in infrastructure investment in DPRK, much of this for transportation, focusing on three corridors, all of them going north-south: one in the west going to China, one in the center focusing on between the two Koreas, one in the east focusing on reaching Russia at Vladivostock (I have seen commentators unaware that DPRK and Russia have a common border, if just a small one).
Finally, all the talk of DPRK opening up and liberalizing looks overblown, at least in the near term. Just before the summit a major meeting there involved strong statements that there will be no opening up or moves to more marketization, probably to dampen down expectations of most of the population given how much foreigners are talking about it. The ROK companies may need to wait awhile.
Oh, and as a further point, in recent global hacking competitions, North Korean teams have won.
Given the vagueness and lack of definitions in the post meeting statement, thus far, there is no deal.
Dennis Rodman is emotionally committed to the deal!
There is no deal, the congress sees any deal as detrimental to the income security of the pentagon trough. There is already talk of a bill telling the commander in chief he has to keep the front line force in South Korea surrounding the Kim legacy.
The term “denuclearize the peninsula” is clear until Kim says “we want to be like New Zealand” and no US nuclear weapons can come near the peninsula. I do not know that US Army still has the atomic shell, nor the odd size howitzer to shoot it. Nor do I know the USAF has tac nukes in the bases. No nuke would be allowed out by the allied democrat-GOP centrists.
What the pro war [in NW Pacific Asia] faction are not allowing on the front page is Mohamed bin Laden has jailed dozens of his princely cousins and his war in Yemen is expanding and soon they will ask the US to help ravage the poorest country in the Rea Sea region…….. once the Saudi cabal starts taking serious casualties to grab the port where most of the food aid enters the Hoouthi areas of Yemen.
The angst over the US’ suspending exercises is worrisome. The assertion that the exercises are defensive is minitruth speak, USAF and naval aviation roles in “defending” Park’s Korea legacy includes thumping the bombed out rubble of all of North Korea.
US overawing force in South Korea and vicinity is keystone of the PNAC investment of the Eurasian land mass!
Mohammed bin Salman, not bin Laden, although maybe you were being sarcastic.